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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nspolar who wrote (9708)7/20/2008 10:09:54 PM
From: nspolar  Respond to of 33421
 
In edit:

In the second to the last paragraph the linked message is #msg-24745036.

I have always had a problem proofing my own writing. Additionally I have to delete charts stored on imageshack, so I do not leave them there forever. All charts updated and used in this serious will be left longer than usual.

TF



To: nspolar who wrote (9708)7/21/2008 9:47:05 AM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Thanks Falcon,
I also have been doing a lot of thinking, along with a lot of stewing and studying too, about the markets longer terms. I will be following your series with great interest.

Best,
Roebear



To: nspolar who wrote (9708)7/21/2008 10:07:21 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Respond to of 33421
 
I like Russell in general, but his obsession w/Dow Theory and the transports I think is somewhat misguided. Like any indicator it works for so many years people start to take it at face value w/out questioning the underlying math/logic. On the surface it's a good indicator. However, in this environment I think it's skewed somewhat.

Problems I have w/it

1) Just one indicator, like ARMs index I think in this bear it'll eventually fail.
2) Still tied to the global economy vs in the past it was more US centric. Global economy will be last domino to fall, but given that US, Canada and Europe going into recession fall it will
3) The Index is actively managed skewing results over time
4) 25% of the index is rail companies which have a reason to move higher in line w/oil prices as it becomes very competitive w/other transport methods at higher oil prices. Other companies w/in the index have some rail components as well.
5) Airlines are due to for consolidation (pricing power). Oil is set to fall as well which should help. Again they are not forecasting a "rosy" economy, but rather other factors.

I'm not trying to say that Dow Theory has no merit, but rather there are issues w/this forecasting tool. Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian and sometimes it pays not to be too contrarian. I still think we're at most 1/3 thru this credit crisis/bear market. As always we'll see in the fullness of time.

I'm starting to believe that it won't get as bad as many bears are forecasting for the Dollar more because of deflation, US mortgage bubble losses spread around the world, the J curve w/respect to trade deficit and other major reserve currencies have issues as well. But I still think the Dollar goes lower, but will probably find a higher overall level than the bulk of the Dollar bears expect. However that level is still probably lower than today's levels.



To: nspolar who wrote (9708)8/12/2008 12:35:39 AM
From: nspolar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
This is the second post with the series of posts to be made in 'The Ultimate Storm Series', ref. #msg-24775005.

In our 1st post we discussed crude, and we left all the commodity and crude bulls (count me in) with a basic question of sorts. The question is if crude has another huge move up left to complete, can this move be accomplished with the general markets out of sync? We give our opinion at the end.

This post will be rather brief, as it is about the financial sector. With respect to fundamentals we have to admit we know little about this sector, and feel a bit out in left field, or all alone. I have tried to follow all the fundamental posts on this excellent board, but I am still left more than a bit lacking of understanding of all the more recent issues. The amount of money, real or paper, that has seemingly been lost is beyond comprehension, let alone all the real reasons. Yet make no mistake about it, this sector is important to the health of overall markets.

Fundamentally I would say then 'I am in awe'.

With respect to the overall topic at hand we have a simple question:

It is obvious this sector has had the stuffings knocked out of it. It should also be obvious (my opinion) this sector is not going to 'zero'. Assuming a bottom is closer, and this sector bases a bit and moves up, as any TA approach would deem reasonable, what will happen to the general markets?

A couple of observations are:

a) This sector has had the stuffings knocked out of it, yet the LT trends in the general markets have not broken down. That fact maybe quite important.

b) If this sector bottoms and moves hard up, it should have a positively huge effect on the general markets.

From a current technical perspective we start with a LT chart. As noted we do not really know where in the hell the BKX (used here as an indicator index) is. We have an opinion it may have completed a '1' up, maybe way back in '98. Since then it may have been in a continuous correction. We tend to think it will stay in a correction, and that the low we portend not too far in front of us will be an 'A' of '2'.

The 'Indu' is also overlaid in this chart. Various conclusions are possible, but in my opinion the BKX leads the Indu, by a bit.



img141.imageshack.us

The second chart is TF's rendition of the present state of the BKX.

- we think it is very near an IT top.
- we think it has an extended abcde wave E to complete.
- we think it could go very low here, and have we drawn in the absolute worst case possibility.
- we think a big low near the end of DEC is most likely, but are willing to watch it move down (or up), and go from there.



img503.imageshack.us

We also realize there are probably some folk confused by the wave numbering. This has been explained a bit in previous posts. We like the system we are using at present, because it blows the cobwebs out of the mind a bit, and makes us think. That being said if one is a classic (Prechter type) EW'er, the following chart is where we think the BKX is at, from this perspective.

- We think it possible the whole vth of '1' has to be given back ... i.e. it is to the low 20's.
- We think the BKX is about to start a 5th and final wave (of C of A of 2) down. If you notice none of the preceeding 'impulsive like' waves down (labeled i and iii) have extended. Hence we think this vth wave down must extend. This would portend a rather long wave, one that will confound all the early birds looking for a bottom.

img98.imageshack.us





And we would like to end with our SKF chart. Over the last several months we have plotted the SKF 'Parabola', and we tend to think that so far our model is decent. Hence we continue to use it here.

Any break of the model however is not to be tolerated ... the model basically predicts one last high, a higher high than previous.



img300.imageshack.us

Be Careful Out There!

TF



To: nspolar who wrote (9708)8/12/2008 5:14:27 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Hunter, Touradji Hedge Funds Gain as Commodities Sink (Update3)

By Saijel Kishan and Stewart Bailey

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity hedge-fund traders Brian Hunter, Paul Touradji and Renee Haugerud made money in July as energy, metals and agricultural prices fell the most since 1980.

Peak Ridge Commodity Volatility Fund in Boston, advised by Hunter, the former Amaranth Advisors LLC energy trader who helped trigger $6.6 billion in losses there, returned about 24 percent, leaving it up at least 230 percent this year, according to an investor. The main fund of New York-based Touradji Capital Management LP gained 6.5 percent, cutting its loss to 5 percent in 2008.

Commodity prices in July fell 10 percent, the biggest monthly decline since March 1980, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. The index has plunged 19 percent from its July 3 peak. Rising inventories and slumping demand sent contracts from oil to soybeans tumbling, raising the prospect of an end to the six-year commodity boom.

``They timed their trades well when everybody else missed the beginning of the correction,'' said Aoifinn Devitt, founder of Clontarf Capital, a London-based investment consulting firm. ``And this correction is increasingly looking like it's got legs.''

Commodities extended their declines this month, losing 8 percent through yesterday, dragging down shares of companies in the mining, energy and agricultural industries. This year through yesterday, the Standard & Poor's Index of 500 companies slid 11 percent, while the index has gained 2 percent this month. Ten- year Treasury notes returned 2.72 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

Risk of Collapse

Touradji, 36, the former Tiger Management LLC trader, told investors in March that a ``buying orgy'' in commodities was inflating prices and increasing the risk of a collapse. Touradji Capital, which oversees $3.5 billion, started in 2005 and has since returned an annualized 31.4 percent.

Peak Ridge Capital Group Inc., a Boston-based private equity firm, hired the 34-year-old Hunter last year to advise its commodity fund. Hunter last month failed in his attempt to get a court to prevent the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission from proceeding with an enforcement action against him for manipulating natural-gas prices. The action focuses on trading at Greenwich, Connecticut-based Amaranth in 2006.

Galtere International's Commodity-Based Global Macro Fund, run by Renee Haugerud out of New York, gained 0.98 percent in July, increasing its return this year to about 18 percent, according to two investors.

Saracen Gain

Haugerud started Galtere, which manages about $2.5 billion, in 1999. She began her career in 1981 trading commodities at Cargill Inc., the largest U.S. agriculture company, and later worked at NatWest Markets, a unit of U.K.-based National Westminster Bank.

Saracen Energy Partners LP, a Houston-based energy fund, gained about 3 percent in July, trimming its loss this year to about 29 percent, according to two investors. The fund, run by Neil Kelley, 49, had lost 22 percent in February alone.

Allison Duensing, a spokeswoman for Saracen, didn't respond to messages left on her phone. Officials for the other funds declined to comment.

About $70 billion is invested in commodity hedge funds, more than double the amount three years ago, according to estimates by Chicago-based Cole Partners Asset Management, which invests in such funds.

BlueGold, Ospraie

Traders that lost money last month included BlueGold Capital Management LLP, an $800 million fund co-founded in February by 31-year-old Pierre Andurand in London. The fund declined about 19 percent in July, paring its return this year to 109 percent, according to investors.

The flagship fund of New York-based Ospraie Management LLC, the $9 billion hedge-fund firm run by Dwight Anderson, 41, fell 13 percent, extending its loss this year to 15 percent, clients said.

Aisling Analytics' $2.3 billion Merchant Commodity Fund, run by former Cargill traders Michael Coleman, 47, and Doug King, 41, out of Singapore, dropped 11 percent in July, cutting its gain this year to 1.2 percent, investors said.

``Funds are riding through choppy waters at the moment,'' said Jeremy Charlesworth, founder of London-based Moonraker Fund Management Ltd., which invests in hedge funds. ``There isn't a bull market that doesn't have corrections along the way, and this is one of them.''

Clive, Armajaro

Christian Levett, 38, a former Moore Capital Management LLC commodity trader who started the $2.5 billion hedge fund Clive Capital LLP in London, lost 8 percent in July, cutting his return this year to 25 percent, investors said.

London-based Armajaro Asset Management LLP's $1.3 billion commodity fund run by former Marc Rich & Co. trader John Tilney, 53, lost 7 percent in July, trimming its return this year to about 12.5 percent, investors said.

Fortress Investment Group LLC's $1 billion Drawbridge Commodities Fund, run by William Callanan in London, lost about 3 percent in July, paring its return to 5.7 percent this year.

Surging demand for raw materials in China and other expanding economies spurred six straight years of gains, as reflected in the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 prices. The index is up 11 percent this year.

``Commodities are akin to the Nasdaq back in the late 1990s,'' said Peter Rup, chief investment officer at New York- based Orion Capital Management LLC, which invests in hedge funds. ``It's in a bubble and the game is going to be over very quickly in the second half of the year as China's economy cools.''

Extreme Volatility

Natural gas plunged 39 percent through yesterday from $13.694 per million British thermal units touched on July 2, the highest since December 2005. Corn tumbled 35 percent since its June 27 record of $7.9925 a bushel, while oil was down 22 percent from the July 11 peak of $147.27 a barrel. Gold has declined 21 percent from its March 17 record and traded at $821 an ounce at 9:29 a.m. in New York.

``Traders who've been around for years are used to volatility in these markets,'' said Christopher Peel, partner at London-based BlackSquare Capital LLP, which invests in hedge funds. ``Yet the volatility we've seen lately is pretty extreme. The fundamentals haven't changed enough to warrant this price action.''

Volatility jumped to 20 percent at the end of July from 13 percent at the start of the year, based on the UBS Bloomberg index, which measures price swings on a 30-day basis.

Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers can buy or sell any assets, bet on falling as well as rising asset prices and participate substantially in profits from money invested.

To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.net; Stewart Bailey in New York at sbailey7@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 12, 2008 11:30 EDT