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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (8677)	7/21/2008 10:34:59 PM
From: Drygulch Dan	Respond to of 26021

Current thinking on the part of NHC regarding its forward speed from the most frequent discussion. DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. I think Dolly will fool them and keep shifting gears. So far I can detect no noticable slowing, she is running out of salt water real estate quickly. Perhaps tomorrow night she will reach land or stall as NHC implies. The track looks good, although I detect a slight shifting to the Westbound side (Mexico).