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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37460)	7/21/2008 10:00:08 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 217592

been doing zero while chilling in the mountains. wake up, work out, read, laugh briefly at CNBC, turn it off after no more than 10 minutes. watching the gyrations, the spin, the book working, the dizzying swirl of expensive bovine manure while in company of better half and son, letting the inexorable force of the macrotrends grind away and establish themselves as they are doing and will do.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37460)	7/21/2008 10:05:06 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217592

TJ Just looking at last bear cycle from 2000-2002 Index 2000peak 2002 bottom % down 2007 peak DJIA 11722 7286 -37.85% 14280 S&P500 1527 776 -49.15% 1575 NASDAQ 5048 1108 -78% 2861 IYY (tot market) 71.97 36.15 -49.7% 76.92 In this cycle down from 2007 peaks I would expect at least a 40-50% correction on indices, we had a NASDAQ bubble in 2000 so it had much larger correction of 78% but we had larger housing and financial bubbles in the 2007 upcycle so those indices would correct to a magnitude larger than 40%. A 40% correction on indices (likely on conservative side) would take them to: DJIA: 8568 S&P500: 916 NASDAQ: 1716 IYY: 43 Even a very optimistic correction of 30% would take these indices to 9996, 1102, 2002, 53.8 respectively, will likley not go down in straight line due to several bottoms being called along the way but still seems a long way to go assuming no 6 sigma events happen and we have an orderly decline and the economy does not totally crap out(gold should protect against those) but to me it seems a time to remain short; there is too much anxious hedge fund money that is driven by greed calling bottoms at various points and jumping in but that sentiment would need to turn to fear and then we will bottom out on indices.