Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (860)	7/23/2008 1:44:28 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

The Volt would be more likely to replace Priuses or other high mileage cars than it would be to replace the average car or a low mileage car. Why? Close? Maybe, but it isn't exactly something you can count on. You can't 'count on' anything in this world but it's very likely.

To: TimF who wrote (860)	7/23/2008 2:56:49 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86355

Assuming that the Volt will just replace the Prius is a pretty amazing statement considering it flies in the face of all previous evidence to the contrary. In all tech product categories when the market is nascent and new tech and models are coming out every few years, the new tech doesn't simply replace the old tech. Rather, as the whole market grows, the old tech takes a few years to fade away, but the new tech grows the market faster. What we are seeing in the hybrid/electric car market is very similar. Prius was one of the first, but over the next 3-5 years we're going to see almost every major car manufacturer throw EVs on the market and that is going to expand the market at a very great clip, especially if oil stays high, which is a good bet. As you can see below, this market is expanding rapidly. Only mature markets have multiple products that substitute for each other competing for a flat overall market. In new markets, new products take on their own share without cutting too much into the market share of first mover products, unless the old tech is significantly inferior from a price/feature perspective. electricdrive.org