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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1474)	7/24/2008 9:50:47 AM
From: ftian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

AA, do you expect the "C" to go as low as 340?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1474)	7/24/2008 2:02:16 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 3209

Euro charts (related to HUI/Dollar) Given everything that's happening in the BKX FA wise the Dollar should not be rallying. But again it's about relative value and to what degree the news in priced in ST. Despite all the bad FA news on the Dollar we have failed to make new lows or new highs in the Euro. Call it intervention if you wish. It might be, but the Euro zone has it's own problems and they are by no means trivial (Spain, Italy) and they are also going into recession. These charts combined w/the HUI chart posted by Allan tell a story. It's a little early to call an IT top here in the Euro, but it's looking likely based on both TA (double top, negative divergence) and EW. I think the FRE/FNM news is huge, but it was expected by most of the savvy players. It's take a few months or longer to sink in w/the rest of the crowd. Hence an IT or longer ST Dollar rally w/oil dropping isn't totally out of line FA wise. Looks like either 3 or 5 major waves up since Jan 2006 area. Either way with the double top we are about to enter at least a 4 or a much deeper correction from 5 waves up. No real targets here. Going to watch and see how it plays out. Gold/HUI typically bottom prior to Euro. However if the Euro takes out 153 then the gold/HUI will probably still have more downside left regardless of where they are trading at the time. Just a swag. Good time to play some golf and be patient and see what develops. 100% cash ST.