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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Live2Sail who wrote (136418)	7/25/2008 12:56:55 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

2.2 million vacant homes for sale money.cnn.com Census Bureau report shows percentage of vacant houses available for sale and of Americans who own homes were relatively unchanged in 2nd quarter. The percentage of vacant homes available for sale remained relatively flat in the second quarter, but still hovered in record territory. Some 2.8% of homes, excluding rental properties, were empty and on the market from April through June, according to Census Bureau figures released Thursday. The vacancy rate hit a record high of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2008. It was 2.6% a year ago. "They are still not showing a downward trend," said Christian Menegatti, U.S. lead analyst at RGEMonitor.com, an economic research and consulting group. "That's the bad news. The numbers are telling us that prices have to fall more." Just under 2.2 million empty homes were for sale in the most recent quarter. The vacancy rates for homes built in April 2000 or later was 9.8%, more than triple that of houses constructed earlier. Builders capitalized on the boom in home prices and demand earlier this decade, Menegatti said. Many of those houses now are standing empty. "There was a lot of reckless construction exploiting the fact that prices were going up," he said. "Suburban areas were flooded with new construction in locations that were commuter-unfriendly. Now those are suffering the most."

To: Live2Sail who wrote (136418)	7/25/2008 1:03:47 AM
From: Sea Otter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Fitch Getting Bearish - Projects Continued Steep House Decline housingwire.com Projects national 25% fall from 2008 - in real terms. ====================== Fitch Ratings said Thursday that it had enhanced its U.S. residential mortgage loss model, called ResiLogic, a key component of the agency’s overall approach to assessing U.S. RMBS new-issue ratings. While the new-issue market has been essentially dead for all of 2008, Fitch’s revisions suggest that the agency is preparing for where the market might be headed next: seasoned mortgage issuance. They also suggest a very bearish take on housing prices over the next five years: Fitch said in its report that it is expecting home prices to decline by an average of 25 percent in real terms at the national level over the next five years, starting from the second quarter of 2008. And that’s the base case scenario. Seasoned securitizations? In face of those sort of expectations for housing, more than a few market participants have suggested to HW as of late that in order for the battered securitization market to regain its footing, it may have to revert back to issuing deals only for mortgages that have already been “seasoned.” Seasoning refers to the usual pattern of increasing defaults during the first 24 months of a deal’s life; so-called “seasoned deals” typically exhibit much more stable and predictable default patterns. While the updates to ResiLogic cover other areas, it’s Fitch’s addition of the ability to analyze seasoned loans and to take into account loan payment history and house price changes since loan origination that are probably the most telling, at least in terms of where the securitization market is headed next. “The ability to look at seasoned loans through ResiLogic is significant because the dearth of new mortgage origination has placed emphasis on the securitization of seasoned loans,” said Huxley Somerville, group managing director and head of Fitch’s U.S. RMBS group. “To rate transactions with seasoned loans, it is imperative to understand how they are performing in the current environment.” Fitch will also roll out new 25 MSA-level risk factors influencing frequency of foreclosure and loss severity estimates, the agency said; the 25 MSAs chosen are those that have exhibited strong non-conforming mortgage lending activity in the past. “Some MSAs such as San Diego and San Francisco, CA are expected to experience home price declines by as much as 47 percent and 33 percent over the next five years, while home prices in MSAs such as San Antonio, TX are expected to appreciate by 7 percent,” Somerville said. “The home price forecasts are embedded in the state and MSA level risk indicators and will be updated quarterly.” For many investors, the updates come too late to salvage existing deals; but it’s clear that the agency has become much more bearish on prospects in the primary housing market.

To: Live2Sail who wrote (136418)	7/25/2008 10:38:47 AM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 306849

Pretty much the same situation in Sunnyvale, including a price reduction on this shit-shack: sfbay.craigslist.org; "shit-shack", Hey don't knock shit, fertilizer is a hot market these days. :) I know that area somewhat, that 1100 sq foot patch of paradise would sell for around 500K nowadays not the Lizzie 700k had suggested, so about right for her price to rent figures, still not worth it, in my opinion, as an investment property.

To: Live2Sail who wrote (136418)	7/25/2008 2:16:31 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Those are only asking prices. Any body who does not bargain at these times is nuts. Tons of desperate home and condo onwers, if they do not lower their price,NEXT!

To: Live2Sail who wrote (136418)	7/28/2008 6:57:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

not sure what you are looking at Live2. I don't expect actual information here but otoh making stuff up isn't really cool either. Are you trying to say there were only 2 listings over $3K when you looked for 3BR houses on CL? When was that? Are you sure you put in 3BR and weren't inadvertantly looking at 1BR apartments? It looks to me like half the houses are over $3K and since the page includes WG and Cambrian (Cambrian being cheaper), most of those are in WG. here's a sampling just taking a few seconds to pull some up. willow glen $3975 sfbay.craigslist.org $3400 sfbay.craigslist.org $3250 sfbay.craigslist.org $5950 sfbay.craigslist.org $4500 sfbay.craigslist.org $4950 sfbay.craigslist.org $3150 sfbay.craigslist.org $3000 sfbay.craigslist.org $3330 and this is a TOWNHOUSE sfbay.craigslist.org