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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (401801)	7/25/2008 3:58:10 PM
From: longnshort	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575311

Two elections "If you want to start worrying about the presidential election this year, you can look at the comparison between 1996 and 2008," the New Republic's John B. Judis writes in a blog at www.tnr.com. "John McCain is a similar candidate to Bob Dole — a war hero, running on his experience, but also somewhat past his political prime. The Democrats had the advantage of incumbency in 1996, but of course Bill Clinton had been rebuked by voters in 1994. In July 1996, Democrats only enjoyed a 5.1 percent advantage in generic congressional polls. Yet in late July, Clinton was ahead of Dole in one Harris poll by 22 percent and in a Gallup poll by 17 percent. Although Dole would close the gap during the convention and the last weeks of the campaign — when the Clinton campaign scandals broke — the election was all but over," Mr. Judis said. "In 2008, McCain is running about as inept a campaign as Dole. And Democrats enjoy an average lead of 11.6 percent in generic Congress polls. In addition, the Republican administration is wildly unpopular; the economy is in a tailspin; and the Iraqi president has endorsed Barack Obama's withdrawal plan. Yet Obama is only running an average of 4.5 percent ahead of McCain in the polls … "By all odds, a Democratic nominee should be running 10-15 percent ahead at this time. My explanation is the same tired one. Obama remains the 'mysterious stranger' rather than the 'American Adam' to too many voters who are put off rather than attracted by his race and exotic background."

To: Road Walker who wrote (401801)	7/25/2008 5:46:58 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575311

Perot. Guess my memory is better than yours. I can remember the news talking heads talking about how Reagan didn't have a chance against Carter because of Carter's polling led in August of that election year.

To: Road Walker who wrote (401801)	7/25/2008 5:56:31 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575311

Election Up Date: At This Rate McCain Will Be Narrowly Winning Just Before the Conventions John Mark Reynolds Politics 07.21.2008 Bottom Line: Obama should be winning easily. Instead, he is running a campaign that is still messaging to the already converted. While McCain is not running a great campaign, he is running a steady one. Senator Obama is blowing it. Argument: Polls can fluctuate, but at present Senator Obama seems unable to close the deal with the American electorate. There is no respectable poll that shows Obama getting over half the vote. Almost all of them show him getting a good bit less. Following my rule of thumb set at the start of the race, as a challenger Senator Obama is losing when he dips under a five point lead in the polls this early. Why? Obama is a challenger in a year for challengers and poll weakness early on is dangerous. Ask Jimmy Carter who won, but barely in a race that he should have put away. I think this was because Carter never expanded his base, because he believed (with everyone else) that he could not lose in a Democrat year. He was right, but barely and Senator Obama has nothing like the Carter lead. If anything, the general feel of the race so far this summer (following polls) is that it is getting closer. The two polls I trust the most (Rasmussen and Gallup) show the race either tied or with an Obama lead within the margin or error. That is not good enough for Senator Obama at this stage of the race. He needs a solid double digit lead after his Big Trip and after his convention. Will he get it? My bet is “no,” because the great communicator isn’t. At least he isn’t to groups he is not already winning by a great deal. The tone of his campaign seems stuck in graduate school mode as if he seems determined to win every college community in America by a landslide. I assume he will, but he is doing nothing to reach out to anyone else. Perhaps the horrible, very bad, no good year the Republicans are having will pull him through, but Senator Obama is making it close. It is hard for most pundits to see the Senator’s communications ineptitude to date, because most of them (conservative or liberal) come from the social class that Obama charms. Is Obama fever breaking out in Sam’s Club? He might carry Border’s parking lot, but how is he doing at Walmart? What effective strategy has he developed to reach non-African American middle class and lower class voters? Most people don’t read political blogs. What is he doing to reach out to those who have no idea Daily Kos exists? Nobody in the pundit class knows, because few pundits can hear the problem. Senator Obama works for all of us. He is not reaching out beyond his own base yet, but that will not be enough to win . . . or at least not enough to win with any kind of mandate. No Democrat running since Jimmy Carter has topped fifty percent of the vote and Senator Obama is not doing so now. Senator Obama is not winning Evangelical votes more than any other Democrat, as I noted in a New York Times interview. The problem for McCain is that he has not been doing as well as Bush with those voters. However, a coming Jim Dobson endorsement is worth a bit (if only to remove a negative) as well as an Evangelical friendly running mate. There are three viable choices for McCain if he wants to do better that do not carry as many negatives as positives (sorry Huckabee!) in this order: Jindal, Romney, and Pawlenty. Romney’s stock is rising fast, as it should be in these trying economic times. He would also help with the marriage vote and messaging it correctly in California. If Dobson and a good Veep selection are worth two or three poll points (and Evangelicals are a big voting block), then McCain is in this to win. The key is simple: McCain has room to grow with a natural constituency, but running the message he is using now Senator Obama will not. (Political Week at Scriptorium Preview: This week we will hear from a thoughtful Obama supporter who is a personal friend. This person will lay out the case for Obama from a Christian perspective. I will follow up the next day with a response.) scriptoriumdaily.com