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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37572)	7/26/2008 8:24:51 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217573

McCain Summer tax holiday for gasoline and oil price drop. Isn't a coincidence that McCain wanted a tax holiday for Summer season. That would be very nice in an election year. He didn't get it. Coincidentaly, oil is now on a two week nose dive. Doesn't the Lord work in mysterious way?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37572)	7/30/2008 2:57:52 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217573

>>"what be your feel on the election thumbs up/down between obama n mccain?" << Net, today Obama has a 40% chance of winning. Obama has peaked far too soon and expectations are off the charts. He better change water into wine at the convention ;-) Everyone in the press has written gushing pro-Obama stories. They are getting bored with that, and will soon switch to the other side. Obama's got a fair number of weird associates. After September, when people go looking for actual policies, many are likely to be disappointed. Now, McCain will have to do something - not just sit around and wait for the tide to turn. He has multiple options - 1) Do something that encourages women, specifically professional women, who are still mad about Hilary. 2) Pick up the Mexican side of the Hispanic vote. They are already worried that Obama might move blacks to the front of the line for the gravy train. McCain will already have the Cuban side of the Hispanic vote unless Obama picks Bill Richardson as VP. 3) Increase appeal to the industrial middle of the country, auto industry especially. Picking Romney as VP would help this, plus a hard plan for helping the auto industry. If McCain carries Michighan and Ohio, it makes it MUCH tougher for the Democrats. A big push on #3 with some #1. I expect Obama to make one or two major gaffes if he gets enough public exposure - he has been surrounded for a long time with many people who are far from mainstream America. The comment he made for a San Francisco crowd about "small town Americans who are economic losers, clinging to their guns and Bibles" is a pretty good example. I also some a major black leader will rip Obama pretty good - maybe Bill Cosby, maybe someone else. That may only cut a few percent of the black vote away, but will tend to give other people permission to not vote for Obama and not feel racist. Now if the election was being held today, Obama would win easily. But it is being held in November... 3 months from now. So I think Obama has a 40% chance. Which is far too high for the stock market to be comfortable.