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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9740)	7/28/2008 7:24:58 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi AJ,the option makers and writers can develop all types of delta neutral strategies. Which simply means that they don't care what happens to the stock price they are just capturing implied volatility premiums when they grown too large. It's simple amazing that GS has an option with a $10 strike price for Jan 09. when there is nothing below $140 for sept. GS has $10.00 strikes for Jan. 2009, but nothing below $70 for Oct. and nothing below $140 for Sept. It has $120 strikes for August thanks for highlighting some of these Way Out of the money puts on the big Broker Dealers MS is almost back at it's 2002 lows when you look at it's 10 year chart. it would have to go to the low 20's, but basically these stocks have negative return on various 3 5 and 10 year rolling periods and these firms are all looking for new FA's as the Financial Advisors and employees have really been clubbed over the head in their own 401 and employee stock plans. MER is below 2002 lows and you have to go back to 1999 to see prices this low....LEH's chart is ridiculously depressing. UBS's chart is a black hole that has gone all the way back to it's IPO issuance of 2002.... There is big time concern about the dimensions of this once in a 3 generation credit crisis. It really has appearances of being the biggest Credit meltdown since 1720. As a matter of fact, maybe in the really big picture, Prechter had it right when he was talking in the 1990's of this final wave being the final 5th wave "blowoff" extension which would complete the total five waves up since the total black hole that was the 1720 credit market mania and meltdown spearheaded by Scotsman John Law's ability to create a credit creating monster with central banking abilities for the kingdom of France. I'm thinking that 08 08 08, the opening of the olympics is going to be a time of major global stressors. The end of the world quality of Air and Pollution in beijing and China is going to become a major global talking point and may well feed some global hysteria regarding an irreversible climate destabilization.... China having to shut down their 15-20% GDP growth in the Beijing area to try to put lid on their best of Breed, World Class air pollution, maybe this is the fundamental development that has shown the structural limitation of the Chinese, Indian etc economies to growth this fast and a more fully recognized and deeper globally sycronized recession and/or contraction is going to be an additional headwind for financial assets. John ------------- BEIJING: Less than two weeks before the Olympics, Beijing's skies are so murky and polluted that the authorities are considering emergency measures during the Games beyond the traffic restrictions and factory shutdowns that, so far, have failed to clear the air, state media reported on Monday. For the past five days, Beijing has been a soupy cauldron of humid, gray skies. Local pollution ratings have exceeded the national standard for acceptable air since last Thursday, despite a temporary air pollution control plan that began on July 20. Under that plan, officials have used odd-even license plate restrictions to reduce daily traffic by two million vehicles - more than half the city's total. Production at some factories also has been curtailed in Beijing and outlying areas. But on Monday, China's official English-language newspaper, China Daily, ran a front-page story under a boldfaced headline: "Emergency green plan for Games." The article warned that officials may force far more vehicles off city streets - possibly 90 percent - and temporarily close more factories. No timetable was announced, but a senior city engineer told China Daily that officials "would inform the public as early as possible about the details of the plan." The Olympics opening ceremony is on Friday of next week. iht.com