Obama Stars Overseas as McCain Stumbles at Home: Albert R. Hunt
Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- American elections are like the U.S. educational system: The primaries are elementary school, an exciting and unpredictable start; the general election is high school, big stakes that set the future. In between, there's middle school, an awkward, unnatural existence that prepares one for the big stage.
Barack Obama is getting mostly A's and John McCain weak C's in middle school.
Obama's eight-day trip to the Middle East war zones and Europe was almost perfect. The Democratic candidate looked and sounded presidential and reassuring, while avoiding missteps.
The contrasts, often unfairly, with McCain at home were stunning. One looking vigorous in a helicopter over Iraq, the other in a golf cart with former President George H. W. Bush -- 155 years of age between them.
Not all has gone great for Obama. There has yet to emerge a clear message on what his presidency would mean. And the campaign still hasn't reached out enough to other Democrats.
Still, as the cliche goes, it's better sometimes to be lucky. With some swing voters worried about race and values, Jesse Jackson attacked Obama for being too tough on blacks about their parental responsibilities. If you didn't know Jackson, you'd think it was a set-up to help Obama.
Meanwhile, McCain, the presumed Republican candidate, is faltering. He has misspoken, muddled his message and changed his views on issues big and small.
No `Mental Recession'
On the economy, the most memorable McCain moment was his then top adviser Phil Gramm saying Americans face only ``a mental recession,'' and that the U.S. is ``a nation of whiners.'' On national security, McCain's forte, Obama dominated the agenda on Afghanistan, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sandbagged McCain on Iraq.
Last week, the McCain campaign ran an absurd ad, charging that Obama is responsible for high gasoline prices. The Republican candidate suggests that the Democrat lacks sufficient experience, and then says he's responsible for this pressing problem.
A couple of days last week at Obama's Chicago headquarters -- a slightly more relaxed environment with the boss 5,000 miles away -- reveals a campaign brimming with confidence, bordering on cockiness.
Campaign manager David Plouffe reminds his troops it's going to be tough in the final 100 days. They recall the round- the-clock battles against a ferocious Hillary Clinton machine. McCain seems so much easier by comparison.
Fundamentals Favor Democrats
Although overconfidence is dangerous in politics, there's a basis for optimism. Polls show a tight race; all the underlying fundamentals suggest a Democratic win.
The Obama folks have identified 18 battleground states. Only four, with 52 electoral votes, are in ones the Democrats carried in the 2004 presidential election.
The other 14, with 147 electoral votes, were Republican states. These include North Dakota and Alaska, which only months ago were considered safely Republican -- and where George W. Bush got more than 60 percent of the vote four years ago. The Obama grassroots organizing machine puts these states in play.
Most of the issues are hurting McCain. Expanding oil drilling may be all he has left.
`Biography Tour'
The Obama camp anticipates a good next month. He's planning a ``Biography Tour'' aimed at filling in the blanks -- and alleviating concerns -- about his life and values. They have the skill and resources to do this well.
The Denver convention plans are different, too. For the final speech, instead of speaking to a hall full of delegates as candidates of both parties have done for seven decades, Obama, 46, will deliver his acceptance speech outdoors before 75,000 people at Invesco Field. The symbolism is clear. (If Obama's luck holds, it will be a clear night, as they calculated it rarely rains in Denver in August.)
The convention's first three days will also be different. They want to downplay the parade of candidates trying to get television exposure, with evenings built around central figures. If it works, there will be simultaneous town meetings and forums around the country interactively linked to the site of the convention.
Prime-Time Clintons
To be sure, Hillary Clinton -- and perhaps Bill -- will make a prime-time address, probably on the second night. If the Clinton forces demand a roll-call vote to placate their delegates, it won't be near prime time.
Team Obama feels the rank-and-file Clinton voters are overcoming reservations they had about the candidate. Most surveys suggest Obama is getting 85 percent or more of the Democratic vote.
And they have brought in a few top Clintonistas, such as Neera Tanden, who was Senator Clinton's policy director; standing barely 5 feet, she's the Sugar Ray Robinson of issues mavens -- pound for pound the toughest and most talented.
Working with Heather Higginbottom, the Obama policy director and a crack team of economic advisers, they are ready for high school.
The foreign policy operation is weaker. And the most talented political team in American politics still has few operatives who've been through the rigors of a general election campaign.
`Bradley Effect'?
Further, some Democrats worry about the race issue, especially whether there's still the ``Bradley effect,'' which goes back to 1982 when Democrat Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, was leading in the polls in the race for governor of California, yet lost by almost 100,000 votes.
Actually, Bradley won more votes than his opponent on election day, yet lost because the Republicans had a much better absentee-ballot effort.
This year, the Democrats will hold their own on absentee ballots, and Obama advisers are convinced he transcends the old Bradley effect questions.
Doug Bailey, one of the smartest veterans of American politics -- and a Republican -- says that whatever the polls show, ``if the election were held today, it would be a blowout.''
Then he cautions: ``In politics, a lot can happen in 100 days.'' Bailey directed Gerald Ford's presidential campaign in 1976. At this stage, Ford was 30 points behind; he lost by about 1 point on election day.
(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.) |
