Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (9743)	8/2/2008 4:05:12 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

The motif may still be up, but I think this market is sucking wind. I am now open the possibility of a lower low this year, nearly across the board. W/r to the Dow, we may have more chop to a higher high, into late August. Remains to be seen. Dow likes falling commodity prices at the moment. The knock this fall may retrace one rung lower, to the 61 % retrace of the early '03 low. This retrace and possible pivot lands at an interesting juncture, w/r to longer term trendlines; and right near the 10,000 area. img352.imageshack.us The time area for the possible low is week of Dec. 8th, based on trading cycles and waves shown. I like this, because on a pure independent basis it lands smack on a huge Bradley turn. marketclues.net@keatepartners.com If things turn out this way, this low could and more than likely would mark lows in nearly every indice I follow. It would drag AAII sentiment back to all time lows for one more time (just had that), and serve as a springboard from that perspective for a huge rally. The lowest sentiment spike I have in AAII is back in 1990, just a bit lower than the area we are hovering around in now. And let me tell you, that is low. The size of that rally (in '09) would then determine whether or not the LT bull case remains intack, for a few more years. My 'board' read is we have some boisterous bulls (not many but some) along with many hungry bears. The bulls may a bit ahead of the game at the moment. TF (This market requires shifty eyes!)

To: nspolar who wrote (9743)	8/4/2008 3:38:53 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

'The motif in the HUI is down and will remain down for weeks. My target low for later this year is 235. Will start looking however at around 290.' Let me see ... at this rate we will be below 300 in a matter of days. Just kidding. I think we bounce before then. Prechter's Revenge is what is now in full force. GG puts, Paas shorts ... :>)! The pm buys of a lifetime are yet in front of us! Patience grasshoppers, or is that goldbuggers? Many different investment paths will be taken by LT goldbuggers. There is no right or wrong way. Eventually success will be had by all, provided they get out before the ultimate HUI top which will be > 2000. Course depends on age as well, we do not live forever. SMN and DUG are hauling ass today too.