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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39737)	7/30/2008 12:12:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Below are "snips" of information from the Credit Suisse assessment of the LRCX quarterly report of yesterday. <<Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) 29 July 2008 At trough, with unclear duration Bottomline. As we noted in our quarterly preview, the cycle has become incrementally worse in the last month (SNDK capex cut, Rexchip push out to 2H09). No catalysts to own SCE given estimate risk and little confidence on any recovery thesis. We hold out hope for LRCX as company has been spending ~$30mm/qtr in extra opex for non-SEZ cleans for three years – by year end we expect either a pare back or delivering on revenues. LRCX report concerning for KLAC's estimates - remain cautious on KLAC. LRCX Valuation. LRCX troughed at ~1x EV/sales in CY02 – our new CY09 revs of ~$2.1bb pegs downside to ~$27. We are revising our CY09 EPS to $2.41 – our new PT of $38 represents 16x CY09 EPS. Our estimates assume ~5% capex growth in CY09, and LRCX either delivering on clean or paring back on expenses in CY09. Outlook for KLAC. SCE system shipments for VSEA, LRCX, AMAT, TEL all appear to be declining by two-thirds from peak to trough quarter. Even assuming just a 50% decline for KLAC – we’d think trough revenues for KLAC need to be ~$475mm (or less), versus street consensus at ~$560mm for trough revenues for KLAC in C3Q08 (Sep). Estimates are at least 20% too high for KLAC in 2009, continue to be cautious until numbers more realistic and product momentum stabilizes.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39737)	7/30/2008 5:06:49 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95616

Lam Research shares spike despite weak outlook Associated Press 07.30.08, 2:12 PM ET forbes.com SEATTLE - Shares of Lam Research Corp. surged Wednesday after the maker of computer chip manufacturing equipment's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's modest expectations. Investors sent the stock up $2.14, or 6.8 percent, to $33.73 in afternoon trading, but analysts were less enthusiastic about the results. Economic pressures and oversupply troubles in the memory chip market, which accounts for some of Lam's largest customers, have caused some companies to hold off on upgrading their factories. Needham & Co. analyst Y. Edwin Mok maintained his "Hold" rating on the stock but cut his earnings forecast for the 2009 fiscal year to $1.50 per share from $2.20 per share as the company forecast weaker-than-expected shipments in the current quarter. "We'd wait for confirmation of a memory spending rebound before revisiting our rating," he wrote. Fremont, Calif.-based Lam indicated shipments are expected to grow significantly in the fiscal second quarter, which ends in December, but Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Gary Hsueh wasn't fully convinced. "Our checks indicate that while the increasing order activities is likely to be true, the certainty of those orders is deteriorating as the memory sector is facing increasing demand weakness," he wrote in a research note. Hsueh trimmed his profit outlook for the full fiscal year to $1.47 per share from $1.50 per share.