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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (37824)	8/1/2008 7:50:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217652

just in in-tray News out of China is bad....I'm afraid it may have caught a cold much worse than people think. Notwithstanding stocks rallying in China yday on Hu's comments, growth has been slipping very fast. If you look at the electricity consumption growth in jun, it was half the rate of the first five months. GDP growth and electricity consumption has a very established relationship in china. The significant slowdown in electricity consumption implies a fast deterioration in economic growth. One can only assume that during the Olympics the numbers will be distorted downward but the trend is not encouraging. The question is how they are going to grow without electricity and oil or coal/other raw materials which are getting increasingly difficult to obtain at any price in certain regions (from what I hear) and how will this impact infrastructure spend. How quickly can they shift from export led growth to infrastructure growth even assuming no shortage of electricity/key raw mats? What will be the growth quality if we go back to investment driven growth again like in 98-99? How will commodity prices respond to this? These are all questions to ponder.