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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (31691)8/2/2008 4:36:07 PM
From: Spekulatius  Respond to of 78752
 
BWP - yes i did sell when It bounced back nicely, for the same reason I sold KSG. I am taking profits where I can in this environment.

BWP had a decent earning report selling out their capacity as fast as it goes online. With MLP's I am seeing more secondaries which in conjunction with the current cash starved environment are good for 10% haircuts and will be good buying opportunities.

So far all MLP have met my expectations as far as earnings and distributions are concerned. APL's earnings were terrible, IMO. they operations were doing OK but a 280M$ realized hedging loss caused by dirty hedges (hedging NGL exposure with crude and selling them out at a loss when crude peaked) is a disaster. Now with those hedges gone, APL is much more vulnerable to falling crude or gas prices. For AHD (APL GP) that is great, since they now get their share from the additional distributions from the new units. APL for me is a sell, AHD a keeper at this point although I like ETE and MGG much more. FWIW, I also own MWE which is a nice MLP with the GP and the MLP wrapped in one so there are no IDR's (CPNO being the other MLP with the same structure).

I also did follow you into LMC and added of my MSFT and NWS shares.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (31691)8/2/2008 5:50:30 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78752
 
Hi Paul - I sold my BWP on the run up too. I did not want to deal with the special K1 tax filings. The 7% gain for one week was not bad either.

The MLPs throw off good income, but as their projects grow, the master partners (usually the large oil companies and distributors) receive a much larger percentage of the return than the limited partners. I am a long term value holder and am willing to take a smaller short term return for the much higher returns obtained when a new project is developed and eventually generates huge, consistent long term revenue streams.

I like your theme on the Bakken shale opportunities and have made different investments in the drillers. Who are the aggregators and pipeline operators that will benefit from the huge volume of natural gas that needs to be moved and distributed to the end users? I want to stay away from MLPs if possible.

Here is a small list of companies I have come up with but none are pure plays or exceptional value buys.

finance.yahoo.com

Perhaps a long shot is Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) cheniere.com . The company is selling at a five year low and is loosing money as a result of the accumulated debt they have on their books. It is not a direct play for the Bakken shale NG but they do have several storage LNG terminals that are necessary when the NG is distributed around the country and throughout the world. In February, the CEO said if the right offer was put on the table, they may sell the company. Their crown jewel is their Cheniere Pipeline Company where they own MLP interests. forbes.com

Any other companies come to mind for natural gas pipeline operators and/or aggregators in the Bakken shale region where a lot of the new drilling and exploration is being done?

EKS