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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44934)	8/4/2008 11:18:11 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69822

by Ivica Juracic August 4, 2008 space red space Much Weaker Than Expected Good day! Job data fell less than expected, however, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level in four years. Indices tried to open with a small bounce to recover some of late Thursday's selling. The gaps filled and we had some strong selling. The strong intraday move down took the indices under the 20sma daily support area. After 30 minutes of selling pressure with an exhaustion move ended on large volume (60 min charts)the indices reached its low and the rest of the day we chopped around. On the 60 min charts we can see that indices fell in a bear flag formation and the DIA/SPY recovered from its morning losses to close the day above the daily 20sma while the QQQQ was the weakest one on the daily charts closed under it. That is the short explanation of Friday's action. It was expected that after the morning action the indices fell in a tight consolidation pattern primarily because it was a summer Friday. What next? Last weekend in the commentary I said that weekly time frame is now the main time frame for me to see the direction. We can see the indices didn’t make any big moves. Unfortunately they are all much weaker than I expected several weeks ago when they reached their low. I expected a stronger bounce, but for now we can see the slow pace correction. On every time frame we see a trend test, first it will be the 10sma and the odds favor it to pull back to previous weekly low. Perhaps we will see. August is slow and the Olympics are next week so trading is generally poor. PLEASE keep that in mind. I don’t expect we will see many swing opportunities and I will be focused all month for intraday setups plus “own ways” like SAY and ARBA on Friday. There will always be opportunities. Next week I will be with my family from Tuesday. I will not be in the room nor will I be able to send any updates. Keep in mind that we are entering August, the worst trading month of the year. Be careful. [Johnny: We really won't know the mood of the big institutional investors till about a week or two after the labour day weekend. ]