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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (138905)	8/4/2008 10:49:53 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 306849

Yes sir, got 5 year option arm financial nuclear bombs going off?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (138905)	8/4/2008 11:15:30 AM
From: butschi2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Firste Wave: Subprime Second wave: second liens and ALT / options ARMs third Wave: commercial real estate/LBOs going down fourth wave: prime uptick on defaults from nearly zero in 2006 to around 3-5%. Fifth wave: credit-card debt/auto loans/commercial loans imploding Sixth wave: muni defaults exploding and no insurers left ;) Seventh wave: T-Bills loosing value due to inflation .... stock marketets crashing / GM/Chrysler/Ford having problems .... All in all a long way to go until all risks are priced in for the balance sheets of banks. Especially the big banks like C have huge and opaque balance sheets and will have more hits to their balance sheet if europe goes into recession and ROW growth slows down sharply. Until now the big hits could be deferred, but the money for rescues runs dry. Many retailers are imploding and jobs losses from retail should mount sharply, depressing CRE(shopping) values and another hit for the banks from retailers and CRE-REITS. The most damage in jobs and BK´s from firms will happen just after the recession is ended! Therefore losses will mount for the forseable future 12-18 month or perhaps even 24 month. And a CDS/derivatives armageddon could happen in the meantime or not.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (138905)	8/4/2008 11:18:38 AM
From: Sr K	Respond to of 306849

That 'Times' author, VIKAS BAJAJ, writes "a second, far larger one is quickly building" as if there is something new and currently happening, like it's news. It's like demographics, and has been in place since 2005, 2006, 2007. The media is running with the story, and the NYT still has it as its lead. So they must be getting a lot of hits.