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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (106483)	8/4/2008 2:02:05 PM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 206321

Looks oversold today to me. Usually with a drop this fast of this magnitude, there will be a rebound that is strong enough to scalp a trade -- and love the leverage of options!....bought some OIH 195 Sept calls (OIHIS). Should be good for a bounce up within a day (or two). Looking to sell at 9.00 or better. big

To: gregor_us who wrote (106483)	8/4/2008 3:10:51 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 206321

>>>most severe correction in the energy equities, of the past 3-5 years<<< An interesting thoughtful post. I would just throw out a little history which may or may not have any meaningful comparison here. Al Gore cracked the oil complex in August/September 2000 by releasing the SPR. We then had the coldest winter....'00-'01...in probably 20 years. NG spiked to $10. Unheard of at the time. We also had the California energy crisis blossoming on very low NG storage and a hydro shortage in the PAC NW. Heating oil went through the roof. I wasn't able to start my trusty old Mercedes 240D (diesel) for ten days - and it had a block heater - Washington DC area. Crude spiked. Crude and NG then pulled back a bit, and hen crested in June '01. In the mean time, the internet had been melting down for a year, and Greenspan was wielding his rate cutting saber. So we had a boom, then the Al Gore bust, and a peak about nine months later. What was the same: 1) US entering a recession both times, 2) Long period of oil equity profits, 3) Political harassment What was different: 1) Global recession today, 2) Much higher global demand growth, 3) Credit crisis - if anything will lead to less financing of drilling, 4) SUV density higher (just guessing but it sure looks that way when on the highway), 5) lots more NG fired generation, 6) lots more NG heated homes - which are further from job locations. 7) Supply dropping - at lest for crude 8) global NG prices are much higher and steady at these levels, 9) #8 stated differently - we have a global NG network given increased LNG capacity 10) Broad equities not in as much of a bubble as in 2000 Does any of this mean anything?? I think so. NG never really caught up with crude in the classic 6:1 energy parity sense - now largely refuted. CHK should not be selling off this hard. Something wrong with that picture.