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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (31703)	8/5/2008 10:06:39 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78752

I agree with you Grommit. It is quite possible that there will be NG glut in next couple of years. On the other hand, I don't see oil glut, since I don't really see huge oil projects coming online and substituting for declining capacity worldwide. Oil sands are somewhat promising, but pace is slow, approvals take a long time and buildout is slow too. There are not that many uses where oil is easily substitutable. In transportation there would have to be a lot of infra and vehicle change to adopt NG. Also, even if we have NG glut, gas-to-liquids is going to be small percentage and again not easily buildable. However, this means that it may be worthwhile to swap from mixed NG/oil plays to purer oil plays. SU is a good candidate as are most of other oil sands.

To: Grommit who wrote (31703)	8/5/2008 10:41:58 AM
From: gcrispin	Respond to of 78752

Boone Pickens seems to think he knows. nytimes.com Personally, I don't think the NGV (natural gas vehicle) movement will take off in the US. But I do believe that it have a greater impact overseas. I mentioned that I have purchased SNEN. The stock stock is off the BB an onto the Nasdaq. They've recently raised guidance, announced a large order and have discussed a change in attitude by the Chinese government in Wuhan toward NGV. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com app.quotemedia.com

To: Grommit who wrote (31703)	8/5/2008 5:24:51 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

I dont have an answer to that. however it isnt going to take long at these prices for people to switch from heating oil to natural gas, on top of that if NG continues to be $20 abroad and $8 here only a matter of time before that NG gets shipped off to foreign countries. People in my area are switching out of heating oil as they can no longer lock in pricing for their winter heating costs. As Ive explained repeatedly once NG hits $9 in any given year CHK starts to hedge and locks in nice profits. CHK is one of my largest positions and if it goes down more and I have the funds I will probably buy more I dont believe its possible for oil to be over $100 a barrel and for NG to stay below $10 for any length of time. If MCDEP says the stock is worth $80 and one can make a plausible case that is worth $125-$150 thats good enough for me. Having said that I own lots of oil stocks too, but dont think I know them as well as I think I understand CHK.