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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (9892)	8/5/2008 10:34:45 PM
From: ggersh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

TH, I think alot of people here on SI are frustrated by the markets, me included. Manipulation screws everyone. China fell, hook, line and sinker for American Capitalism. I believe they have made all the same mistakes America has made, only GOVT. driven. I heard they have spent over $300 bil. for the Olympics alone. Nuts, isnt it. I dont think they can create a middle class that can support their expansion, and the destruction of America's middle class will be a Disaster for all.... GL ggersh

To: TH who wrote (9892)	8/5/2008 10:40:28 PM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71456

>>I'm just out of ideas on how to play this. I'll just sit on the bullion and wait. My first losing year in almost five, and somehow I still think I made the correct fundamental play. Clearly I'm mistaken. Just MHO -- Hang in there, be cool, and listen to Vi who has apparently been thru this in Russia (right, Vi?). Its a very old scenario, with some new tricks thrown in. For your reading pleasure: A good many of us here have invested a portion of our assets in precious metals... so this should be of interest. This article (see link below) is essentially a comparison of the gold price (public knowledge) with the gold purchases and sales by the ECB -- also public knowledge if you are willing to wade through the ECB financial statements and translate the gold and gold receivables value (revalued quarterly) from Euros to troy ounces and tons. That has been done by "bart" and makes a pretty convincing case IMHO. So it looks like from 1999 to present the ECB has used up roughly 2800 tons of its original (high in 1999) 13500 tons or approx 20% of what it had on hand then or approx 26% of what it has on hand now in order to control the price rise in gold, or attempt to force it down lately from its attempts to break USD 1000. With 10700 tons, they still have a substantial war chest left. They both buy and sell, so one can conclude that while they want to control or force down the gold price, they want to husband their asset. They would rather not loose it all. So for gold investors this looks a bit more sinister than: "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent." Its not a case of irrationality. Its a case of design. How long will they be willing to keep this up? How long can they keep this up? And if the Euro system breaks up, what then? The sales and buy backs appear to be as much as 2000 tons at time... which dwarf the IMF 400 ton sale. nowandfutures.com Now, this doesnt change the fact that the gold price is down. But it may give you some clue in part as to why its down. Can we all collectively beat the ECB? There is certainly enough money out there to do it. Do they think they can win? Whats the record so far?