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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1573)	8/6/2008 8:57:43 AM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

AA, as you mention here quite often, why not use Oscars Razor, or whatever it is called. Why do you have the QQQQ correction as being an abc/abc correction, when it seems pretty simple that we could be doing a clean abc correction as I have listed below.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1573)	8/6/2008 1:56:29 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3209

Went short 2xQQQQ with QQQQ at $46.26. This is a short-term trade based on this setup posted earlier today... which did make that marginal new high into the top of the pattern, where I shorted it. Stop is today's high. Thinking it is just a s-t trade. It'll be damn short if we threaten today's high. You won't need to ask... I'll be out, 'cause I am not stepping in front of a Hound.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1573)	8/6/2008 2:29:13 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 3209

<If price gets up over 46.50 then this read is wrong and you do wanna be long!> I agree with this sentiment. But can I trouble you to teach me a little about practical implementation? The upper line is right at 46.50. It's very likely that we test that line, even if we are turning down. How do you interpret what it means to "get up over 46.50"? Have you found hard, fast rules, or guidelines, or is it really mostly gut feel? I try to think in terms of scenarios: 1. a late day run that charges over 46.50. 2. a morning gap over 46.50 3. a midday grind over 46.50 How far do you wait for it to go beyond 46.50? Do you wait to see the first pullback to get long? EDIT: I see you've started trying to get short this. Note that I'm not asking about getting stopped out of the short. I'm asking if you'll share your thoughts on strategy for getting long if you should get stopped out of the short. I'll share my inclinations for the above scenarios: 1. A weak late-day push over the line would not be trusted. But a strong charge to the line would probably lead me to buy it at 3:55PM. 2. The gap over scenario is tough. A gap over means it happens during amateur hour, and I'm likely to wait to see what happens at 10AM. If it doesn't pull back by 10:05AM, I probably chase it and buy at the market. I may miss out on a big move in this case, but too many gaps get reversed. 3. I would be suspicious of a midday grind through it, and might wait for 3PM. If the inflection at 3PM is not sharply negative, then I'm inclined to buy it. Regardless, I would want to see a 60-minute bar over the line, except in the AM gap over scenario that doesn't get sold at 10AM. I'd love to hear your critique of these approaches. `BC