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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (300)	8/6/2008 6:28:26 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 491

>> Sentiment out there stinks right now << Agree on most points except above. The same people who rode this down have not capitulated. Gold threads still only rec bullish posts. There is little acceptance of much lower gold numbers. Slider said that his recent posts received more nasty PMs than he's had in a while. Joe average trader who played the CRB on the way up is nowhere close to capitulation. Gold/CRB still too linked imho. Sentiment is getting there, but considering how much blood has been spilt already I'd say sentiment is still way, way too rosy. Again ST even a minor rally in oil would probably cause a $20-30 rise in POG. But I'm still of the opinion that odds favor a bigger washout in POG. I'd be amazed if 850 held and that's the first line in the sand.

To: SwampDogg who wrote (300)	8/6/2008 6:36:19 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 491

>> IMO no way that CRB goes down or sideways for a few years << I don't see how you can make that call and still be forecasting 80 oil. There's been quite a bit of demand destruction already in the US and this recession is potentially only 1/3 thru w/the worst part to come. Who would have thought the juniors would be at these levels w/gold at 1000+ and 900 currently? Expect the unexpected in this market. Copper is sitting at multi-year support currently. Another .20 down wouldn't take much, but could cause a test of the mid 2's again. Again just a TA call. I think the world picture will look quite a bit different 6-9 months from now. Just like the US the question will not be whether or not the world is going into recession it'll be how deep and how long.