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Strategies & Market Trends : The Swamp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (304)	8/6/2008 8:24:58 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 491

I agree that those are possibilities, but I think Oil going to new highs this year is somewhat remote w/the demand destruction we've been seeing. The move towards $200 in 2009 is quite possible w/some help from the Dollar, global economy staying stronger than I expect and some peak oil mixed in, but I don't think it's the odds on favorite out of all the possibilities. Agree on 2000-2003, but don't think we're at that pt yet. During that time period it took almost a year for gold to become "unlinked" from the general market. Oil/gold/CRB are still tracking way too close right now w/what I expect oil to do in the next few months. I think we need at least 1-3 months of outperformance or even a counter move or have oil closer to IT bottom levels. ST oil could very well get a decent bounce from these levels, but IT it should go lower. The BS spin in the media is going to be inflation is abating. Oil is declining. CRB is declining. Banks will improve. Who needs gold. May not last very long, but that's what we'll hear for at least the next 1-2 months is my guess. Latest Newsweek recommends emerging markets for investing. Only 1 page article, but again sentiment wise we're not there (just my contention of course).