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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (1355)	8/8/2008 4:57:23 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

They are "crunching through the actual numbers", at least to the extent that almost any SI post is likely to (and to a greater extent than your post did) The only part that was pure guesswork, was the factor that you didn't consider at all - That any campaign to have people properly inflate their tires to a larger extent will fail to be 100% effective. 10% of all cars becoming properly inflated due to such a campaign is generous as a high end estimate (note I said 10% of all cars, not 10% of all cars that are not currently properly inflated). You can't assume 100% of under inflated tires will be properly inflated, that just isn't going to happen. 1 to 3% of the oil used to make gasoline for 10% of all cars (and SUVs, trucks, and light vans) is clearly rather unlikely to add up to as much oil as its estimated will be produced by ANWR. Using less generous, but realistic, estimates of the amount of cars and tires that would be changed, results in the savings being negligible on a national scale. Moving from total percentages of oil (which was what Obama referenced) to gallons of gasoline (which you used) doesn't change the result of the equation. ---- "Americans use about 385 million gallons of gasoline every day." eia.doe.gov Not all of that is in passenger vehicles, but I suppose the campaign will be for all vehicles not just privately owned ones, or ones you can operate without a CDL. OK lets assume that 30% are seriously under inflated. And that a campaign against under inflation, permanently takes care of 25% of that (a rather generous estimate) And I'll set the savings per vehicle at 2% (midway point of "1 to 3%") 385 million gallons * .3 * .25 * .02 is 577,500. At 19.5 gallons of gas per barrel (your figure), That would be under 30,000 barrels of oil a day saved. The EIA estimates for peak ANWR production are 510,000 to 1.45 million barrels per day. eia.doe.gov And that's just ANWR. Throw in all the other disputing drilling possibilities and you get a larger total. As your fond of saying, thank you for playing...