Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39844)	8/9/2008 3:06:32 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95640

This is the same SOX data as the last post, but this time it is sorted by PEG.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39844)	8/10/2008 8:15:45 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (8/9/08) amateur-investor.net The correction in the price of Oil has helped the market rally from the July 15th lows. As I have talked about in the past there has been an inverse relationship between the Dow and the price of Oil going back several years. Generally when the price of Oil has fallen (points A to B) the Dow has risen (points B to C) and when the price of Oil has risen the Dow has fallen (points C to B). Thus it's no coincidence that the market has rallied over the past 4 weeks as the price of Oil has dropped. Meanwhile I have already heard some experts say the price of Oil has topped and it will be below $100 by the end of the year. Keep in mind the price of Oil rose from the upper $50's to almost $150 from early 2007 through June of 2008 (points E to F) so it was due for a correction. My guess is the price of Oil will drop back to around the $112 level in the near term which is a key longer term support level that coincides with its 40 Week EMA (blue line) and 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the January 2007 low to the June 2008 high). Once the price of Oil drops back to this level which may occur as early as next week we may see a significant oversold bounce develop shortly thereafter. As far as the major averages let's look at some weekly charts. The Dow has been making a series of lower Lows and lower Highs since peaking in October of 2007. Currently it looks to me the Dow is just going through another Bear Market Rally which may eventually take it up to around the 12100 area (point G) which is the 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2007 high to the July 2008 low. Once the current Bear Market Rally ends which may occur within a week or two then I expect we will see another significant downward move as we move into the Fall. The Nasdaq which appears to have a key support level near 2160 has rallied back to its 40 Week EMA (green line) but is nearing its 38.2% Retracement Level near 2430 (calculated from the October 2007 high to the mid March low). If the Nasdaq can rise above this upside resistance level then its next area of upside resistance would either be at its 50% Retracement Level near 2515 (point H) or where it stalled out at June near 2555 (point I). As far as the S&P 500 just like the Dow it has been making a series of lower Lows and lower Highs since peaking in October 2007. It's possible over the next week or two the S&P 500 will eventually rally up to its 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2007 high to the July 2008 low near 1340 (point J) before it makes another significant downward move in the Fall. Keep in mind we saw a similar pattern occur from 2000 through 2002 before the actual bottom occurred in late 2002 as the S&P 500 made a series of lower Lows and lower Highs. Meanwhile if you look at a long term chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1970's you can see it has formed a Bearish looking Double Top pattern over the past 10 years. Also notice the S&P 500 found support in mid July at 1200 (point K) which was right at its 23.6% Retracement Level calculated from the late 1974 low to the high made in October of 2007. In the future if the S&P 500 were to take out its 23.6% Retracement near 1200 and make another significant move lower you can see its next longer term support level would be at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 1000 (point L).