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To: Man on the moon who wrote (62726)	8/10/2008 8:09:24 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

I got a friend into BEAV back in the 3s/4s after the low back in 2001/2002. I wish I had bought but never got the courage. Had a basket back then of HXL, BEAV, GR, DCO, LDSH, Rolls and BAE - all are triples or more - ugghh! BEAV should be somewhat isolated as the bulk of their seat work is refurbs. The bad airline sector in US hurts this work with stretch-outs except the majority of revs are from high tkt seats in premium classes. US airlines trail in this category and the new seats are also lighter. BEAV should be a winner - esp as the widebodies are the key to the biz and groundings recently are for narrowbodies. Biggest issue may be weakening intl trends for pax and yields. A few years back they got into trouble because they had too much debt - lucky for them it was all long term bonds. Now the only real debt they will have is from the acquisition. That is what has killed the stock in here and this type of distribution is hard work, can be low margin and can be quite cyclical. I would say the airline order situation is in the price - the entire sector is trading like garbage. The big big risk to the sector is that it trades at 10x EBITDA in front of peaks (on 1-2 year before the peak earnings) and then trades to 4-6x EBITDA multiples coming off the peak. And this is on declining earnings. PCP is the safe way to avoid some of this given the mixed industrial uses. Jon