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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (1422)	8/10/2008 12:38:24 AM
From: Peter van Steennis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

J.F. We have to start sometime. If we had started 10 years ago ANWR would be in production by now. Who knows where oil prices would be if that had happened. There is no quick fix but we need to start. California and Florida have some shallow shelves that can be drilled and developed rather easily as I understand it. Best regards Peter

To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (1422)	8/11/2008 6:26:40 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

2027 to 2030?????? 780,000 barrels /day?? and the GOP is jumping up and down to drill right now so we can get the price of gas down NOW?????? 1 - Oil in the future can have some effect on decreasing the price now, to the extent it discourages current producers from pumping slower, or delay drilling, because they figure the price will be higher in the future. Also it can be a psychological factor on the market, and have an effect today without increasing the amount of oil pumped today. How much this factor is actually working is probably impossible to tell, and it might not be a big factor at $100+ prices, but it could be at least a minor issue, and there is a small chance that its more than minor. 2 - (the far more important point for me) - I haven't said anything about getting the price of gasoline down now. That isn't my concern. I don't think there is anything we can do to reliably get the price down very quickly, at least not without causing more harm than good. $0.41/barrel = .0097 cents per gallon!!!! $1.44 = .034 cents per gallon!!!! I don't think anyone can reliable estimate, the price of oil years in advance, or the amount that X amount of additional supply will reduce the price. I think such projections are almost worthless. Also to the extent it doesn't lower the price much , that would 1 - Decrease the incentive for additional supply to create additional demand, and thus mitigate environmental concerns and strengthen the effect of this additional oil on our balance of trade, and 2 - Mean that the oil produced is even more valuable, so that its even more foolish to waste the valuable resource. Furthermore the estimates are just about ANWR, but there are many other areas where drilling may be opened, its not just ANWR.