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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44942)8/11/2008 5:09:17 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69835
 
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Consumer spending heading for a fall
Economist: 'Frugality is now replacing frivolity'
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT Aug. 10, 2008WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With the stimulus checks just a memory, U.S. consumer spending is set to decline in the third quarter for the first time in 17 years, economists say.
The rebates were big enough to keep spending on the positive track in the second quarter, but U.S. households didn't spend nearly as much of the windfall from Washington as Congress expected. Instead, they saved it and used it to pay down debts heading into what could be a long winter.
Economists estimate that between one-sixth and one-fourth of the money was spent.
"Frugality is now replacing frivolity," wrote David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, who suggests that the consumption patterns of the 1950s could be coming back. "Ozzie and Harriett" is in; "Sex in the City" is out.
The first official data on third-quarter consumption will be released in the coming week. In addition to the retail sales report for July, the calendar also includes July numbers for consumer prices and industrial production for July, and the June figures on foreign trade.
The data "should reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is in recession," said economists for Goldman Sachs.
The developing slump in consumer spending will make it increasingly difficult to sustain positive growth, said David Resler, chief economist for Nomura Securities. If the U.S. consumer falters, then global growth probably will too.
Consumers face three hurdles: Higher energy may be easing, but their wealth is still falling. And wage growth has been very weak.
Retail sales probably fell 0.3% in July after a 0.1% gain in June, according to a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
Truck and car sales were terrible in July, falling 8.3% in terms of the number of vehicles sold to the lowest level in 16 years.
Sales excluding autos were probably a little stronger, up about 0.6%, the economists said. The reports from the chain stores were so-so for July and cautionary for the rest of the quarter.
Although gas prices began in fall in July, the average price at the pump was higher in July than in June, so gas station revenues probably rose, said economists for Citigroup Global Markets.
CPI
The surge in energy prices peaked in July, capping a 5% increase in consumer prices over the past year. In July, the consumer price index probably rose 0.4% after a 1.1% spike in June, the survey said. Core prices, which exclude food and energy prices, probably cooled to a 0.2% gain from 0.3% in June.
The cooling of the core may be in part a statistical quirk, as many of the volatile component rose strongly in June and are due for a pullback.
The moderation in the core rate will be noticed at the Federal Reserve. "Importantly, the rise in energy prices over the past year did not spread to core prices," said economists at Citigroup.
While the Fed may still think that core prices won't rise rapidly now the pressure of higher food and energy prices has waned, Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich believes firms are being forced to absorb their higher input costs because demand is weak. Once the economy rebounds, Stanley expects core inflation to heat up again.
Industrial production
Oddly, auto production may actually boost industrial output in July, which economists suspect rose by 0.2%. Seasonal factors "expect" a big decline in auto production this time each year for plant retooling. But this year, the retooling didn't happen because production schedules are so light.
The bottom line? A 26% drop in assemblies was turned into 21% increase, Citigroup economists said, accounting for the entire gain in industrial output for the month. "We expect this auto-led jump in production to fizzle," they said.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Johnny: I am not sure where this leaves contract manufacturers like JBL. JBL projected an uptick in the 3 rd quarter due to new programs coming on line . Obviously given the price re-bound JBL is being given the benefit of the doubt. Whether it comes to fruition, we will see.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44942)8/11/2008 7:16:06 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Respond to of 69835
 
When I downsize it will be to a one level and easy to maintain.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44942)8/11/2008 10:39:10 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69835
 
August 11, 2008 10:05 AM PDT
'Extreme' gamers padding video game industry's bottom line
Posted by Daniel Terdiman 6 comments

The video game industry had better thank its lucky stars that hard-core gamers do what they do.

According to a report issued Monday morning by industry analyst firm, The NPD Group, the most active group of players, which it termed "extreme gamers," devote more than a full-time job's work week to their avocation. But they don't get insurance benefits for their efforts.

Rather, NPD's "Games Segmentation 2008" report explained, extreme gamers put in an average of 45 hours a week playing games, and, even better--for the video game industry's coffers--bought a whopping 24 titles in the last three months.

True, these committed gamers make up just 3 percent of the 174 million that NPD said play on PCs or Macs or dedicated video game machines. Still, that means 5.22 million people out there are putting in serious amounts of time gaming away. And if you stop and think about the dollars they're spending, if they're buying 24 games every three months, it's kind of breathtaking.

The NPD report identified seven different segments of gamers, including our extreme friends. The others include 9 percent who are "avid PC gamers," 17 percent who are console gamers, 14 percent who are online PC gamers, 15 percent who are offline PC gamers, 22 percent who are "young heavy gamers" and 20 percent who are "secondary" gamers.

According to the report's author, NPD analyst Anita Frazier, the largest group, the young heavy gamers, comprise a group 38 million strong. They tend to favor portable game machines like the Nintendo DS or the Sony PSP, while the extreme gamer spends most of his or her time plopped down in front of a Microsoft Xbox 360 or Sony PlayStation 3.

Still, Frazier reported that PCs are still the single-most popular gaming medium.

The report delved into cross-ownership, producing some interesting, if a little confusing, data.

For example, someone who has a PS3 is more likely to also own another next-generation console, like the Xbox 360 or Nintendo Wii, than those who started with either of the latter machines. And, 45 percent of PSP owners also have a DS, while just 21 percent of DS owners have a PSP as well. I'm not great at math, but I think that means there are a lot more DS owners out there. Perhaps I'm wrong.
gaming

One intriguing fact in the report is that fully 14 percent of games purchased overall were digital downloads. I would have thought that indicated a heavy degree of usage of services like Xbox Live, but the report indicates that 27 percent of that downloading activity--the largest share of any gaming medium--was done by PC gamers.

NPD said its report was based on a survey of 20,000 gamers.

What does it all mean? Well, it's hard to tell exactly. But one thing that stands out is the idea that PC gaming is alive and well.

I think we tend to forget that in the age of massive marketing budgets for machines like the Xbox, Wii, and PS3, and the incredible hype for games made for those consoles like Halo 3, Guitar Hero III, Grand Theft Auto IV and so on.

But when Electronic Arts' Spore comes out next month, it will not be available on consoles. It will be primarily a PC game, though versions will be available for the Mac, for the DS, and for mobile phones.

All told, though, the report seems to spell out that the video games industry is relatively healthy, even if those extreme gamers may not be.

Topics:
Games

Tags:
NPD Group,
Microsoft Xbox 360,
Sony Playstation 3,
Nintendo Wii,
DS,
PSP

[Johnny: I think the industry has matured also, so the established based of users it pretty static. The lack of new technology and killer games that give a totally new experience has slowed the industry's growth. Mobile gaming in North America at least has not emerged due to the restrictions of the existing networks. LTE and WIMAX are really just buzz words as opposed to reality for most subscribers as they have not been deployed in a massive scale just yet.]