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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rolla Coasta who wrote (83157)	8/14/2008 6:39:18 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

You must know the Russians and know when to cal their bluff - Russia is aware that all they have for exports is energy resources and other commodities their real manufacturing facilities are no match for the West or of China or even India even CEE countries are surpassing them with the help of EU. One of the clear indication of Russia panicking is Sergey Lavrov comments “chose between us or them” or “forget about Georgia territorial integrity” - if they would not panic they would ignore Bush comments and do their sinister thing There is still time to confront Russia forcefully and Putin and his gang will buckle as he has no choice and will avoid direct confrontation with the West and try to keep himself in power as he knows that this is the only way the sweet money from bribes and graft will flow into their bank accounts. Now they know they have a golden opportunity well planed in advance; 1. Disarray in the EU as Germany Italy and other small states are captive to Russian energy etc.(a plan in the making for over a decade) 2. The looming Iran crisis which Russia makes sure to keep all powers involved with no solution, whereby they supply enriched uranium etc. 3. The mood in the US related to new military intervention 4. The election cycle not only in the US 5. The difference in opinion between the US and EU on to many issues 6. The usual lack of backbone and the sysiness of the EU - best see who visited Tbilisi except Sarcozy who needed too - non of the OLD EU head of state - ... and more prominently Greece, Bulgaria Romania, Italy, Spain, Croatia, etc. that have social affinity to Georgia Russia would have preferred not to act now but Sarkozy election and his surprise affinity to the US forced their hand. Any one following what was going on in the Caucasus and Georgia in special, would anticipate this already last winter. The rise in the price of oil and the ability so easily to manipulate commodity prices gave them more self-assurance, as was the present financial debacle in the US and EU. One of the easy ways to prove it aside from the verbal rhetoric that no one paid attention to, was Russia sending to Abkhazia military contingent to repair their rail way between Russia and Abkhazia – now why in heaven spend money on the railway of another country when their own infrastructure is in shamble you may ask? Well today you have the answer – moving quickly many armored battalions (close to 2 divisions) into Georgia. Russia has only two ways to enter Georgia easy – the tunnel into S. Ossetia and by rail trough Abkhazia So any one blaming the Georgians as those that started the present war are smoking something bad – if Georgia did not try to prevent Russia from entering Georgia last week the Russian Army would by now barbequing in Tbilisi and forwarding demands to BP to sell 51% of the BTC oil pipeline to Gasprom(as they did with Yukos and later to Shell in Shakalin and now trying with BP Russian JV). Unfortunate most people on SI and in the Western Press are clueless as to what is going on in the former USSR. During the recent visit of Rice to Georgia – she was praying for a miracle and hoping that if no pretext will be given to Russia they will postpone the operation – unfortunately she was dead wrong it seems the Russian made teh move timed for the opening of the Olympics to avoid TV coverage - they failed on this because Georgia was prepared. Also keep in mind there are few ethnic Russian in the conquering forces as they are “to soft” to Kremlin / Putin taste. Most of the forces are composed of other Caucasians like the likes of Chechen, Dagestan, Ossetia, Abkhazians and you name it ect., which have an old desire to grind an ax against Georgians and be cruel as cruel they can be in our days. – what is going one now on the ground is the proof to it, is how they pillage and burn and murder innocent people and at the same time keeping a news blackout on the region with grossly misleading statements – they are there continuing their murderous way, the same way and tactics the Russian army used in Chechnya and the world stood by.