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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bart13 who wrote (96296)	8/15/2008 2:12:44 AM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

((And Mish is wrong no matter what. <g> )) LOL! But how do you "really" feel about the matter. :) Thanks for your thoughts. I think I might comment in more detail later. I think we're generally on the same page. But we may differ on your following comment: ((At the risk of sounding Pollyanna-ish, the human race and the US have gone through rough times before and we're all still here.)) I certainly concur that the human species can exhibit tremendous ingenuity and adaptivity. However, having really looked into some of the "peak oil" literature of late, it appears to me that we are facing a tremendously difficult situation. The transition to a post-hydrocarbon economy will be a tremendously painful one IMO, and it is a transition we must make. We are facing a downslope in the global oil production curve that will likely began in earnest around 2012-2013. If anything, surprises of late have been to the downside, as the depletion rates of the major elephant fields (of which there are 4) are declining at a faster than anticipated rate (witness Mexico's Cantarell oil field, which it appears is now suffering an annual depletion rate of around 15%). The average annual oil depletion rate is now around 2.5%, and there was a well-received study on the Oil Drum which estimated that the mother-of-all oil fields, Saudi Arabia's Ghawar filed, is somewhere between 69 and 72 percent completed, and may well be set to go into steep decline very soon. Jim Puplava conducted an interview with one of the co-authors of "Profit from the Peak" a couple weeks back. financialsense.com Of course, Puplava has interviewed many peak-oil experts over the years, and has really been a beacon for raising awareness around the peak oil issue. I picked up a copy of this book after hearing the interview, and it's an excellent summation of the current state of affairs. I highly recommend it. My personal feeling - along the lines of Michael Rupert - is that "peak oil" is a key factor driving US militarism in our world today. It was a significant motivating factor behind the War in Iraq, and it continues to occupy IMO the minds of the top geopolitical elite in US strategy planning circles. Anyway, crazy world. We shall see how it all plays out. Best regards, Glenn