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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (96301)	8/15/2008 7:10:43 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

carranza2, You may be correct. I assumed that the Fed would use the expected tools to the fullest to reignite the game. Maybe the path is going to be deflation sooner. I don't know at this point. Maybe the goldbull is over and the dollar is the only safe harbor in a global deflation. But, I just don't believe that yet. GT TH

To: carranza2 who wrote (96301)	8/15/2008 7:58:03 AM
From: TH	Respond to of 110194

carranza2, Your edited post perfectly sums up my thinking. I am actually thinking of adding to gold miners if we can retake 800. I think the dollar rally is overdone. Too much, too fast, and too little fundamental basis. The interest rate differential game is nonsense for the simple reason that the Fed does not want to raise rates. Illusion and jawboning at the finest level. The market will figure it out eventually. I just hope the awareness does not come at POG sub 700. It is going to be exceptionally difficult to game the GDP if exports decline because of a strong dollar. And at some point, and I have no idea when or at what pain level, the other G7 monkeys are not going to want to import even more inflation from a weakening currency. They are trapped just like Ben. So, if China and India and all the rest of the emergers don't really want stuff, the inflation monster might be tamed. I think people, regardless of where they are, want stuff, and food, and energy. More people means more stuff needed. Commodity boom has many more years to run. GT TH