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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (9840)	8/15/2008 8:46:10 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

Thanks John.. Really owe it to a guy I run into on Yahoo from time to time.. He's the one that got me looking at RDN as I've never invested in the sector before.. This is probably the best place to begin understanding the company. It's the transcript from the most recent CC: seekingalpha.com Book value claimed to be $35/share and $6 Billion total cash, with only $1 Billion in debt: finance.yahoo.com Pay special attention to what they say about Sherman Financial. Based upon the price that MGIC received for their similar stake in Sherman yesterday ($209 million), the quarterly dividend of $19.5 million that RDN receives equates to a 40% annual return. It seems that Sherman has an option to buy out RDN's stake by 19 Sept and given the amount of that dividend, it makes sense that they will. As I've stated previously, I'm still feeling my way through the sector as I learn more. But I certainly banked some great coin this week on this stock.. I sold 2/3rd this afternoon in the event something occurs this weekend. Given that the stock was once $60/share and the banks seem to be writing off a good portion of their loans (and the fact that RDN has some of the least exposure to sub-prime and Alt-A debt), it stands to reason the shares are worth at least $20 by December when their next earnings report should be positive. Take a look and tell me what you think.. I'd really like to know your opinion. The entire sector seems to be on fire (unfortunately no ETF that I can find) and it bodes well that we're working our way out of this mortgage mess (but a long way to go). Hawk