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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (96409)	8/18/2008 6:16:42 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Isn't the price of gold and oil already telling us that?> LOL -- ya, oil and gold have really been on a prolonged slide. Get real. No disrespect intended, but we are not just broke -- not just in debt up to our eyeballs -- we are racking up new debts at an unreal pace as we speak. Guess what -- we can't pay our debts. More specifically -- we cannot pay our debts to foreigners who loaned us trillions of dollars thinking we could always somehow service the debt. Well we cannot. That means we will default. Outright repudiation is the sort of thing that would simply crash the entire global system. The alternative is to repudiate via inflation -- again, no disrespect, but those who keep saying that demand will fall and so prices will also fall are way out of their depth in terms of economic analysis. The more the debt crisis snowballs, the more we are forced to repudiate our debts -- that is reality and there are no if ands or buts about it. As for oil and gold being in a downtrend -- very funny.

To: orkrious who wrote (96409)	8/18/2008 10:04:56 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Ork, Sorry to hear that about Russell. I respect the hell out of him. Still, I stopped listening to R2 about two years ago. I think Dow Theory is not as valid as it once was, say when America made a lot of stuff the world wanted. This shift by R2 might be just the thing to get sentiment to the right level. I've got a small GG position started, and maybe it is time to add some more and maybe a few other select momo goldies. This looks like just a normal bull market correction to me and I think the end of the gold bull is a still a long way into the future. What, Ben is just going to toss in the towel? Let the bull shake off those that don't have the stomach. I'm keeping my bullion, as I'm fond of it, and I prefer it to clownbucks. GT TH

To: orkrious who wrote (96409)	8/18/2008 10:23:58 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Actually, imo, Richard is capitulating to the new view sweeping the markets. He's saying the deflationary view--or end of inflation pressures view--is no where to be found. I see it everywhere. RR was the one who talked about USD strength years ago, as the denouement to the bubble. I wrote about his view in my Dollar essay last year (in which I pay due respect to Richard). I like Richard and everyone else likes Richard. I think it's a very confusing time right now, and no one is as sure about what's going on. That said, it's August, and in the last few years, May and August have been times of notable deleveraging and counter-trend squeezes. I think the commodity smackdown is the most spectacular yet. However, the previous smackdowns also seemed quite stunning. Oil in Q3 and Q4 of 2006? Gold in Q2 of 2006? Oil in Q4 of 2004 also fell very hard. The purpose of the smackdowns is obvious: to get even the most experienced people to start howling at the moon. PS: hat tip to David Kotok today who correctly pointed out that USD strength is not correlated at all with oil, that this is just a recent correlation that people have expanded way past the last half year. (I'm not long gold, but I suspect gold could rally in 2009 even if the USD is stable). I wish RR the best. In the last few years, he has changed positions so many times--most notably at the turns. Only to find himself on the wrong side. G My USD essay from early last year: gregor.us