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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (96428)	8/18/2008 11:35:07 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Is safe, solid, investments> the R2 code word for gold? below is what he's written on gold for the last 10 days. he changes his opinion often on where the mkt is going, but not on gold. I'm not going to go searching for exactly what he says about gold and deflation, but it's bullish. there is nothing safer to him than gold. from friday's missive: My stance -- I've been buying gold since 2001 for a reason. The reasons haven't changed. I've said before that I never intend to sell my gold. The lower the price of gold, the more ounces I can purchase with my Federal Reserve Notes (dollars). wednesday's: Following up on yesterday's XAU chart, below we see a daily chart of Gold going back to the year 2000. First gold established that long shallow rising trendline that you see. Then around 2005 gold established a much steeper trendline. During 2008 gold moved up and away from its steeper trendline, hitting a high of 1037 in May. But by that time gold had gone up too far and too fast. Ads in the newspapers appeared telling you that gold was going to the moon. Gold had become "a hot item." Next, gold slumped in to what we might call "the big correction." Which is where we are now. But gold is also severely oversold. Referring to the chart, look at RSI, look at MACD, look at the bottom panel which is momentum or the 144-day rate-of-change. So no, I don't think it's the end of the great gold bull market. I guess you could call this "the correction that makes the true-believers doubt their beliefs." It may take an extended period of time to repair the technical damage to gold. But as the girl who was eating peas one at a time said, "What's the hurry?" from tuesday's: XAU is the index for the gold and silver shares. Through yesterday, XAU has been down eight out of the last ten sessions and 12 out of the last 15 sessions. The 12 out of 15 sessions particularly interested me because it sets off my 80% thesis. Whenever any market is down 80% of the time over a string of closings, this represents a severe oversold condition. The longer the string, the more important the 80% thesis applies. The action of XAU since July 15 can be likened to a crash. Study the daily chart of XAU -- the chart goes back to the year 2000. Look at the red arrows. It appears to me that XAU is now the most oversold it's been since at least the year 2000. XAU is now so oversold, so compressed, that I would think some sort of a bottom should near. Referring to the two panels at the bottom of the chart, the upper panel is MACD and the lower panel is the 144-day rate-of-change. Every thing on this chart suggests an oversold extreme. With gold down sharply and with mining expenses and wages up, the pressure has been on the precious metal mining stocks. The vice of higher wages and lower gold has put a clamp on the gold mining stocks and only higher-priced gold will get these stocks out of their funk. But the point is that they are now severely oversold and cheap, cheap, cheap. from friday 8/8: My philosophy on gold -- "I have never traded gold, I just accumulate it."