'Mish and other straight up people on SI have been pounding the table about deflation for a long time. AND his writing abilities are easy to follow and certainly not full of riddles and "clues" that can be interpreted "either way".
Did that make your gold, or nat gas stocks come back (ROTFLMAO)?
What a crock of shit. I like Mish and read his blog all the time. But the one thing that Mish doesn't furnish- is ANY trading advice or thoughts on market timing. Mish has only generically commented on gold and gold stocks.
So excuse me if I just come out and say that YOU are full of shit on that bitch.
Mish is a content aggregator and armchair economist. And yes, he has banged the drum on deflation longer than anyone else- a couple of years now.
Unfortunately- the trade until just weeks ago has been on inflation. And anyone trading gold, oil, or natural gas stocks who followed the deflationists- lost their ass and missed an incredible run.
Gold was $980 just a couple of weeks ago!
I'm sure YOU remember that! As well as all the gold bugs calling for $2000 gold and loading your sorry asses in at the top once again.
Same with oil and natural gas.
Oil was $145 and going to $200 and Nat Gas was $13.50 going to $20!
And the correction came just a couple of weeks ago and it's been brutal.
Concerning gold and deflation. If you read MISH he has recommended holding gold during deflation. But, what did Slider just tell everyone about gold and deflation? And WHEN did Slider start talking about DEFLATION?
2 Years ago? Or, a couple of weeks ago?
And what did he say when he posted those charts showing what gold did during Japans deflationary collapse? He told you that you were about to quote: 'give it all back.'
And guess what- the oil, gas, and gold bulls just did exactly that- THEY JUST GAVE IT ALL BACK.
Show me where MISH has posted one thing that either made, or saved you money during this correction. I challenge you to post one thing timingwise.
Put up- or shut up, and then grow the F'k up.
Which call on commodities and deflation made you money- the one two years ago, or the one Slider made here on July 16th-
Here, let me rub your sorry assed noses in it-
*****************************************************************
Message 24764074
To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (10437) 7/16/2008 4:38:05 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack 6 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 11210
Scratch & Sniff test...
For months upon months, we've listened to the inflation
vs. deflation debate.
Of late, "the trade" has obviously been on inflation, as gold,
oil, and commodities in general have soared to new highs.
But, why were they soaring?
Post the bust of the 1998-2000 tech & internet bubble, the
Fed starting reflating. It accelerated that reflation post
911, and inflation lifted all boats as noted in this chart
below.
Something that few traders would realize, is that the DOW
actually outperformed the CRB commodity index over that four
year period, with the DOW being up +54% to the CRB's +39%.
Last August the Fed started it's interest rate cut campaign,
and gold, oil, and the CRB soared to new highs fueled by
a lower US Dollar, ramping money supply, and rising inflation.
But, what's happening now?
The DOW has collapsed 3,000 points off it's highs, and
housing has continued to implode, while gold, oil, and
the CRB continued on to new highs.
So why the disconnect, and what caused the DOW to fall?
The US economy has rolled over, real income is down,
unemployment is rising, both consumer sentiment,
and spending have collapsed. And we've seen asset
deflation in housing, financial instruments, and
stocks continue.
Smells like deflation doesn't it?
So why the continued rise in oil, gold, and the CRB?
The Fed began it's rate cuts last August and did not stop
until this April. The US Dollar sank. CPI, and PPI rose, and
whether due to speculation, changes in supply:demand, or
geopolitical supply disruption risk - oil went to new highs.
We all know that the Fed rate cuts, and monetary stimulus
have a lag effect. Inflation numbers have continued to
soar... largely from the impact of higher commodity costs
and explosions in food, and energy prices.
But, the Fed has actually slowed the expansion of the money
supply, and asset deflation has continued unabated in
housing, and in the equity markets.
And in the last 48 hours we've seen unprecedented
intervention to save Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac,
and perhaps the US financial system from collapse,
and... we've seen oil, nat gas, energy stocks, gold,
metals, and mining stocks, along with commodities
selling off?
Are commodities finally getting a whiff of a slowing
global economy, a Fed that's throttled back on the
rate of money supply expansion, and intervention
on speculators?
I wrote about this two weeks ago here:
Message 24720459
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PPS: Relative the ongoing inflation/deflation debate,
there can be no question that so far...
this has been an "inflation" trade.
But, that doesn't mean it will continue to be so.
Is anyone thinking (ahead) about how gold, and
gold stocks perform in the various stages of deflation?
Are you keeping an open mind -- as far as the
inflation/deflation debate is concerned?
Or, are you a "one way" trader?
Gold bugs may soon reach a crossroads.
One, in which choosing the right road,
may lead to massive windfall profits.
And the other, which may result in becoming
road-kill and giving it all back.
Markets move in both directions.
Markets, and economies are dynamic, not static.
Gold wears many hats, as should traders.
How many hats do you wear?
Are you a dynamic trader, or a static one?
ALWAYS be thinking...
ALWAYS be asking questions...
ALWAYS be anticipating...
ALWAYS keep an open mind...
AND never, ever, fail to take what the market gives you.
You have two choices in this environment...
Pro, or Joe.
Which one do you want to be?
Tune out the cheerleaders, and put away the pom poms.
You'd better be 110% focused, and on your "A-game"
going forward...
Because the "throw a dart"... easy $h!t is over.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This collapse in the DOW and financials was pricing in the
realities of a rapidly slowing economy, if not outright
deflation.
Sooner, or later, it's inevitable that commodities do
the same thing...and they may be doing that right now.
-- The Fed has slowed the expansion of money supply.
-- The Fed has ended it's rate cut campaign.
-- The Dollar has held it's bottom.
-- The US and global economies are still slowing.
-- And the US is still experiencing a deflationary
collapse in housing, and financial assets.
Yes, the inflation numbers are rising, but those
are lagging indicators, and ex food and energy
which are correcting... those numbers may come
down hard in fast, if the economy continues to slow.
You can anticipate these changes, or you can react to them,
and equally as important - you can get pre-positioned to buy
back the collapse in commodities, because if deflation does
gain traction... Bernanke will deliver on his promise to
do what central bankers do best... inflate.
But, right now... he's praying for a little food,
energy, and commodity deflation.
And actually, with this degree of intervention in
the markets... they're doing more than praying.
So stay on your toes, don't drink the Kool-Aid,
and stop every once in a while to take a sniff test
of the market winds... because they be a changing.
S.O.T.B.
*****************************************************************
Now tell me what the hell was so hard to understand in that writing?
And what was hard to understand about the Yen-Dollar/Gold charts, or the HUI trading range charts, or the damn M2 money supply chart that the guy has pracrtically shoved down our throats?
Sour grapes. Nothing more- nothing less.
Slider has a made a mockery of the permabulls on this board and your whiney asses just got hung out to dry at THE TOP once again.
Whodofthunkit?
Piss Off!
I hope the margin clerks liquidate all your sniveling, puke laden, cry baby, cheerleader following, pom pom waving, Sinclair worshiping, Kitco reading asses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love the guy and I don't mind saying it. I don't agree with everything he says- and neither should you. And the one thing that Slider continually hammers us all on- is this-
THINK FOR YOURSELF.
Do the work.
And quit drinking the damn Kitco and Gold Eagle Kool Aid.
There are a lot of things I disagree with Slider about. I shorted oil way before he did. He said he liked nat gas short better, stated why and said wait.
And what happened?
Nat Gas collapsed and has fallen further and farther than oil.
How many damn Nat Gas short calls does THIS GUY need to make before you guys start listening.
F'k his gold calls- this guy has OWNED natty short 3 years in a row.
Find me a pundit that got you out at, or near the top in May 2006. Called the damn trading ranges for what they were- and told you how to trade it. Got you re-loaded into the August Yen-carry trade shakeout bottom and then told you to BACK UP THE DAMN TRUCK again on last Decembers selloff, and then got you out again at the $100 gold and HUI 500+ top?
Show me one- and I'll kiss your margin called- whipsawed ass!
And as far as his riddles and 'clues'- I love them! I love reading something that gives me damn butterflies in my stomach. The damn guy wakes me up like a cold slap in the face some days- makes me roll on the floor laughing my ass of on others- and stops me dead in my tracks and makes me question everything I thought I knew about something on others.
Love him- or hate him- there is NO ONE else like him!
Slider- keep on doing what you've been doing and ignore these whiney asses piss ants.
Ron |
