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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (39081)	8/20/2008 3:23:08 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217860

"credit crunch blowing up, the massive deleveraging that has gone on around the world, the spike in the oil price and the resurgence in inflation. Most of the emerging markets were hit, but so were the developed markets. The emerging markets, in particular the BRIC theme, held up pretty well." theaustralian.news.com.au Exactly as Elmat has been saying here to the despair of Carranza and Elroy who hought I was wrong. I also keep saying to TJ: Bring it on. Bring iton. Let;s see this collapse... "can you imagine the state of the global economy today if it weren't for India, China, Brazil and Russia?"

To: KyrosL who wrote (39081)	8/20/2008 8:56:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217860

just in in-tray the current chart of the spread between 30 yr. bond yield and the t-bill discount rate for the list to ponder. from a technical perspective, the trend toward steepening seems intact, in spite of the chart's volatility. what has caught my eye is that the triangle we can see on the chart is a larger fractal of the triangle built in the summer of '07. so what's worth pondering is the possibility that the next move could build an even larger triangle (the spike highs on this chart coincide with panic lows in stocks , and panic highs in credit spreads). consider in this context the weakness of the recent bounce in the SPX - which is a negative technical development - and the continued crushing of the GSE common and preferred shares, as well as recent moves in credit and CDS spreads. the latter have tended to lead stocks since Aug. 2007, or rather, since Feb. 2007 to be precise (there was a brief, but very strong short term decline in late Feb/early March '07 that was led by a few weeks by a decline in sub-prime ABX_HE indices, the first victims of the then budding credit crunch; at the time the erroneous belief that this would be 'contained' quickly revived the stock market). to my mind, the fact that many banks continue to be starved for capital (since more write-offs are looming) , while at the same time finding it ever more difficult to get reasonable access to same (capital raises at current yields are clearly uneconomic, and stock prices have been decimated too much as well) represents an intractable problem. imo the risk that this will culminate in some sort of cathartic event in the markets seems extraordinarily high.