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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (27882)	8/20/2008 4:32:12 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 149317

Much has been made of the tightening polls going into the conventions. As the folks at MSNBC's First Read wrote this morning, "there is no longer this widespread belief among the wise guys and gals of both parties that we're all just sitting around waiting for this race to break in Obama's direction. The polls -- as well as the money race -- suggest otherwise." According to history, is it wise to draw any conclusions about the eventual outcome from pre-convention polling? Not really. Of course, as you get closer to the election, the polls are going to be a better predictor of the outcome. My own view, though, is that taking the pre-convention polls as a predictor of the eventual outcome is a pretty risky business. You can look back and see, like in 1988, Dukakis was ahead of Bush before the Republican convention. In 1992, some polls had Bill Clinton in third place a month before the Democratic convention.