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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (142158)	8/21/2008 12:31:32 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

How Low Before Housing Blows? seekingalpha.com We all know the old saw that you can't have your cake and eat it too. Still, some folks see depression if the economy continues to slow and hyper-inflation if it speeds up. In effect, they see stagflation, a beast that hides out with Sasquatch. Sasquatch and Stagflation are often spotted just briefly at the tail end of recessions - the US exception being the late 1970's when the misery index (the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate) went through the roof. Thirty-year home mortgages average slightly more than 1.5% above the 10-year treasury bond rate, in normal times. These are not normal times; or are they? Numbers have a nasty habit of returning to normal but aberrations can last for decades. During the 36 years from 1966 until 2002, the baby boomer generation born after WWII went from teenagers to retirees or near retirees. Prior to 1966, home mortgage rates were seldom above 6%. From 1966 until 2002, mortgage rates stayed very high, the moving average staying above 6.5%. By 2002, a combination of factors caused inflation rates to fall. Inflation is the result of too much money trying to buy too few goods. By 2002, China was producing goods like crazy just as the baby boom generation was finally saving for retirement. Many boomers added chunks of money to 401-K retirement plans. Year after year, the price of manufactured goods fell. As usual, the pundits got the story upside down. The pundits said that Americans were not saving. In truth, Americans' net worth soared. Part of the savings was hidden by the accounting system for 401-K deposits and withdrawals. A $10,000 deposit might grow to a $30,000 value and then be withdrawn. The result, according to government accounts, was $20,000 of "negative savings". Millions more were saved through the process of buying and maintaining homes. Millions of people paid down principle on mortgages, bought building supplies at Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) to add to their homes, and put sweat equity into their homes. When they sold the homes for capital gains, they got no credit for ever saving any money.

To: Peter V who wrote (142158)	8/21/2008 1:22:43 AM
From: marcher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

hmm, looked to me like bolt maintained stride pretty well...maybe lost 0.05 by celebrating early, so i'd guess about 9.64 without. still super fast. -G- i suspect he's clean now. but sprinting is a high stress event. drugs are often used to heal or prevent injuries. or so i was told years ago. 20? not sure i could finish that fast...even with drugs. the mind says yes, the body says uhoh. cheers!