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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul ross who wrote (11227)	8/21/2008 1:20:02 PM
From: ecrire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50328

Just one man's opinion; I would not sell out. Oil soaring again; the Dollar convincingly weaker; July M3 numbers now a lagging indicator, probably an important contributor to the August commodities declines.

To: paul ross who wrote (11227)	8/23/2008 2:37:54 AM
From: paul ross	Respond to of 50328

Some question reports on shrinking M3: from Casey Research: (http://www.caseyresearch.com/my-casey-research/the-room) "But back to the topic of whether or not the money supply is or is not expanding, the folks at ShadowStats.com put out a note this week that sheds some helpful light on the topic… Monthly July M3 Gained $81 billion. In the last several days, I have received a large number of subscriber requests for comment on monthly M3 growth, given a popular-media story of a private estimate out in the U.K. of a $50 billion monthly contraction in July U.S. M3 money supply. Based on my regular estimation of ongoing M3, no such contraction took place in the series as traditionally defined by the Federal Reserve (methodology discussed in the August 2006 SGS Newsletter); to the contrary, monthly M3 increased by roughly $81 billion. …While interesting, month-to-month money supply changes can be misleading, given the vagaries of Fed reporting. Year-to-year change, as discussed in the August 3rd Money Supply Special Report, provides more-reliable, long-term indications of monetary trends. On a year-to-year basis, annual M3 growth slowed to around 15.4% in July, from 15.8% in June and was down from the all-time high annual growth rate of 17.4% seen in April. Nonetheless, the current M3 annual growth remains highly inflationary, rivaled outside the current period only by the events preceding Richard Nixon’s closing the gold window and imposing wage and price controls in August 1971. The current pattern of slowing annual growth appears to be an artifact of the still-deepening banking solvency crisis, which likely will see still further Fed accommodation and liquidity expansion in the near future. Could the Fed and the Treasury make a mistake and put their hands in their pockets and keep them there as Freddie and Fannie fail, joined soon thereafter by a meteor storm of failing banks and financial institutions? Will they resist “doing something” or even “whatever it takes” to try and turn around the free fall in home prices – that key driver of the economy? Unlikely, in the extreme, we say. Meanwhile, watch what happens to Freddie and Fannie… because that will provide hard evidence as to which way Washington is going to skew."