SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GST who wrote (96511)8/21/2008 2:14:00 PM
From: benwood  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
I expect prices to generally go up for the next few years, too. Deflationary headwinds exist right now for many electronics, autos, real estate, big ticket items (e.g. appliances) due to collapsing demand. After production collapses, then the deflationary pressure will have eased... except for all those dang job losses.

And against that backdrop, the vastly weakened dollar and a reconciliation of years of exported deflation are coming home to roost. Years of terrible economic policy are manifesting themselves in their usual, unpredictable ways (e.g. food costs).

The net-net that I see is that by hook or crook, our standard of living is on a downward slope and there's no reversing that. We'll have less jobs, jobs which pay less in terms of what they can buy, a eroding advantage from being a reserve currency as we return the ill-gotten gains. From a macro perspective, our relevance will decline and so it will actually be possible for the US to decline while recovery occurs elsewhere. And the continued terrible choices of our leadership all but assure a worse outcome.

I agree on the BS... I've seen more lately that smacks more of ignorance and arrogance than anything else.



To: GST who wrote (96511)8/22/2008 2:00:35 AM
From: NOW  Respond to of 110194
 
meanwhile what most of us care about is making some change and on that score i would say Mish has done a better job of prognosticating than you as far as i could tell, recommending US treasuries amongst other things