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Biotech / Medical : ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mopgcw who wrote (507)	8/22/2008 1:58:00 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 588

Give the recent weakness and news, I have had to take another hard look at this holding of mine. I have taken some profits earlier, but sitting on a 46% loss here, so net net just up a little bit overall (1%). So do I double down here? Cash is about $90mm net of debt ($2.40/shr). Stock is trading just above cash today at $2.60. Burn was $18mm, but should be lower given the layoffs going foward. Even still, they have 1+ yr of cash left to see the results in PDP. They also have a committed facility for another $60mm locked in. pipeline of PDP, Allergan for pain and glaucoma, and ACP-106. My read is the partnership effort appears to be hidnered by their desire to partner ALL of the indications in one fell swoop, while they really only have data for one indication (and some feel there may be issues with that data so far). I confess I do not understand some of the concern expressed over risperidone losing patent protection -- it would seem to me that it either works and is a hit, or it doesn't. I also cannot judge the concern over the utility of clinical dose tested as noted by Citi. Any further insights there would be appreciated...but this would seem to be secondary to the PDP results.. So if the stock goes to 0, I lose $3.75 (basis once i double down). If PDP hits, stock goes to $15. So is there better than a 25% chance of PDP or Allergan hitting something -- assuming 0 for ACP-106? edit: setting aside general market malaise and depression... edit #2: i would also sell my $4 shares as soon as it hit there again if it traded sideways between now and PDP results. edit #3: Anyone see an expected timeline for Allergan results?