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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (107557)	8/21/2008 5:47:45 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206165

Dennis, thanks again for your tireless contributions here. Credit Suisse is calling for ending storage of 3,343 BCF, mostly based on their supply/demand delta of 0.9 BCFD looser vs. last year. That figure is faulty IMO since it incorporates a delta of -1.1 BCFD for LNG imports. That figure for LNG imports is correct today, but starting next month that is unlikely to be correct, given that 9/07 is when LNG imports started falling off the table, and by October they had slid to right around where they are now. So from October on, everything else being as CS has projected, the natty market will be a whopping 2 BCFD looser than last year, not 0.9 BCFD. Hopefully some a them coal plants get shut down, that's our only hope now other than a hurricane (which nobody wants to see for obvious reasons).

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (107557)	8/21/2008 7:31:35 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206165

It should not be much of a surprise that when weather cools utilization of nukes drops off. NG prices drop and the nuke margins shrink big time. Now if they had any maintenance they would have waited for a good market opportunity. Also with cool temps they may have been forced to deload at night. I think they are underestimating the storage level a bit. We have a very warm September last year and moved some NG as I recall. Either way I suspect we will match last years storage level unless October is quite cold.