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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (1905)	8/22/2008 11:10:57 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86356

You say "no that's not what happens", and then you state it will happen, all in the same sentence. Yes, it does. Looking at the curve you can see that for all practical purposes, we are out of oil in about 10-20 years.... There is no reason to think that the curve will remain the same, esp. in the context of having many areas that where legally and politically blocked, but might now be open. Its very unlikely that we will be essentially be out of oil in 10 or even 20 years. Pick a well in Texas, Okla, Saudi Arabia, the North Slope, etc etc.....it cannot be reversed in any real way. We aren't talking about a well, but about a countries production. Countries production has tended to clearly fall away from the peak as well, but we are talking in the context of prices that have increased a lot and may continue to do so, and about the only very large oil producing country that has left a very large fraction of its oil off limits. You don't seem to realize it, but you're agreeing with me to almost every detail I'm agreeing with you on the general thrust, the general idea that there is a peak of oil production, that we are past it, etc. Just not the details and the timing. I do understand peak oil theory rather well, the basic idea is really simple, but any guesses about when the US is essentially out of oil are just that, guesses, educated guesses at best, they don't really deserve the term theory, if your being generous they could be called hypotheses.