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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9874)	8/23/2008 1:29:36 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

Oil bumped it's head on the 100 DMA and fell down again: incrediblecharts.com This supports your theory about the direction of oil prices. Demand destruction is going to start occurring around the world, particularly in Europe which is on the brink of it's own recession (equates to USD support??) Also, take a loot at Twiggs chart of the S&P.. Cup & Handle forming? This suggests that some relief is on the way for the financial sector which makes up 18% of the S&P index. Hawk

To: ajtj99 who wrote (9874)	8/24/2008 11:37:08 AM
From: semi_infinite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

<<Most of that rise above $134 was due to a hedge fund blow-up and subsequent margin call liquidations that caused large short positions to be covered.>> What evidence do you have of that? My conversations with oil company execs indicate that many companies were shorting futures on the way up. They left a lot of money on the table as that activity started when prices were way below 100 so imo it is hard to attribute the move to any individual institution but rather group think. By this time next year, natural decline at existing fields will require another 2-3 million barrels/day or so of new production just to stay even with current demand. The small gears are spinning faster and faster and the big wheel is still moving at the same speed.