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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Advanced Photonics (API) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: randy johnson who wrote (246)	8/29/2008 5:29:57 AM
From: chipmonk123	Respond to of 247

Still here. I expect about break-even in Q2 on revenue of about 7.6M-7.8M. They won't have as many opto-solutions sales (Q1 included some $400K carryover from Q4), but more telecom. Also expect better gross margin -- 50%. Partly product mix, partly better mfg. efficiency. Still operating two cleanrooms, though. In Q3, that situation will improve and in Q4 only one wafer fab will remain, resulting in about 2% better margin. Q2 will include $240K wafer fab consolidation expense which also goes away (or nearly all) in Q3, adding another cent to the bottom line. Net result, continuing improvement with everything coming together in Q4. Some reservations on claiming a blow-out due to lack of visibility on military and telecom in Q4, but improved margins based on much-improved operational efficiency and product mix should keep them well into the black. With three consecutive profitable quarters, also look for a return of a substantial deferred tax benefit in Q4 which could make Headline earnings look much better, possibly as high as 0.15 per share. Also not ruling out a substantial acquisition before then which could change things substantially. My model calls for the company to earn 0.21 in FY10, which with a P/E of 25 gives a share price north of $5. Any speculative fever from Terahertz or significant acquisitions could drive it much higher, of course. chip