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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (83851)	8/27/2008 1:52:29 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Soft Canadian Job Market Masked By Public Hiring Binge globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mish

To: mishedlo who wrote (83851)	8/27/2008 9:01:58 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The IMF did a study that was released earlier this year that said the cumulative growth for China had been overstated by 40% over the past 20 years mainly due to agricultural data that was too high. You could probably find the link in an old Financial Times article. I believe the real growth has actually been around 5%-6% annually, and the current rate is likely a little below that historic trend. I had an exchange months ago with Dr. Marc Faber regarding this, and he tended to agree that it has been at least 8% and possibly not 10-12% as reported.

To: mishedlo who wrote (83851)	8/27/2008 12:25:11 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

That is true. But the process of cleaning-up itself, and provide health care for more Chinese alone, will give a huge boost to GDP growth. I know this is stupid, and some thought earlier that China could avoid walking the same route of the Western industrialization--polluting first and cleaning up second--, they were wrong. China has been taking exactly the same route like the West. And due to the size of China, and the fact that a lot of most polluted industries all over the world all transferred to China, so the pollution is also on a scale never seen before. Yes, I agree China will face slowdown, but my guess is 7--8%. I read a list of top 106 projects China planned for 11th 5-year plan (2007-2012), the total is >$2.88 trillion. That alone will put a cushion for the slowing down in China.