Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11313)	8/27/2008 7:49:10 AM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 50101

M2 I don't think so... 35 billion above where we were June 25h and about even where we were at the end of April. Not dramatic and no predictions just an observation. One out of 1,000 doesn't quite make your point, and certainly underscores mine. I could point out some others.. and of course whether it's stock, real estate, gold, etc. for permabull cheerleaders of anything it's almost always a great time to buy on the "dips". As far as "insurance" -- I've never said: don't own gold, or dump it all... And I never said you did.. just stating my philosophy.. More importantly than that example of gold failing to do well in a twenty year non-stop INFLATIONARY Well yes but basically a disinflationary environment compared to the 70s.. and the US was much more of a master of it destiny in the 80s and to a lesser extent the 90s. But in my opinion the game is starting to change with the rise of China, India, and a resurgent Russia. Gold (as well as several other commodities) had parabolic moves in the 70s that dwarf the rise we have seen in the past 8 years. I don't think we've seen the blow off top yet. Could it drop some more..? another $100 many $200? Sure it could. I am prepared for that.. is everyone who trades or holds gold or the miners? Maybe not. So why would anyone hold gold stocks - the HUI index down from 518 to 300... and "defend it?" Well I don't trade the HUI... I hold bullion. (Even so when things get nutty, I'll sell some of my holdings.. I unloaded all of my 10 ounce bars when silver cracked $20 an ounce) By my vantage point, with dollar cost averaging and some trading and hedging, I am up 120% on my precious metal holdings in the past 5 years. I have occasionally traded GLD and DZZ when I thought the times merited it. As for gold and insurance.. it was much cheaper in dollars in 1985, than it's peak in 1980, but it bought a friend of mine and his family freedom from Vietnam.. for that reason and a few others I call bullion (and not the miners nor ever paper gold) insurance. Is that how "insurance" is supposed to work during times of monetary, credit, and market crisis? If I could predict with 100% accuracy when and where I would die, get into an auto accident, etc. I would purchase insurance the day before the event and avoid the premiums. Unfortunately I can't, hence my posture with holding a rational, unlevered position in gold and silver bullion. I'm not looking really looking very hard at short term events, at least as far as bullion goes. I am looking out to the next 10 years to 15 years. If the US resolves it's budget and trade deficits, underfunded/unfunded liabilities and the like I'll be quite be happy that the value of my gold has declined. (Which I suspect it would ....) ...if it makes you feel any better, I am buying a basket of junior/explorer golds here with "house money" from my Nat Gas "insurance/hedge" short trade. Well maybe I'll join you. The closest thing I've had to a gold stock was NTO which got bought out. Mostly I've been holding some TIPS and Canadian E&Ps and trusts. Good trading to you.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11313)	8/27/2008 10:27:58 AM
From: RonMerks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50101

Slido- I think your "PS" message carried more useable trading advice than everything together that I've read on Kitco and Gold Eagle in the last two years- along with the 4 newsletters that I subscribe to. If I had to pick out 'one' thing that I've picked up from you- it is the necessity of learning to trade in both directions. The necessity of going short, or at least buying puts and profiting on these HUGE corrections. Shorts and PUTS are insurance! Buy and hold isn't insurance- it's stupidity. And doing it over and over and over- is insanity. What insurance was there in watching gold stocks correct 30 to 50%? All the gold bug boards on SI and yahoo go stone cold silent during these corrections. And then after what he said was going to happen- happens, then they show up here and attack Slider for beating them over the head on how to REALLY buy insurance and profit from these shakeouts- instead of continually being shaken out. Did Slider not plead with people here to not let- buy and hold turn into- 'buy and fold'? Did he not say to at least 'buy puts' as insurance? Did he not talk about shorting Natural Gas and using that as a hedge to your gold? Did he not say to take profits when the HUI rallied back to 470 at the top of the trading range- when gold was $989? Did he not say to give the bottom of the trading range some room- and 'gap your buys' in 1/3rds down to the 280 support level of last August's correction bottom? If ANY OF YOU followed ANY of the four above suggestions- you wouldn't have anything to bitch about, because you'd be buying everything cheaper, you would have made money on your insurance- and you would now be in the driver's seat- instead of the passenger seat. Here's Sliders 'PS'. I'd suggest people read it again. 10% will and 90% won't. And guess what will keep on happening to the 90%? I remember 'hating' the guts of my drill sergeant during basic. Hating his guts. But looking back- it was one of the great experiences of my life. Taught me more than perhaps any other man in my life. Yes- it's TOUGH LOVE. But life is tough. I was prepared because of that toughness. Today I love that man like my father. Anyone who wants to hear- it's not your fault. Its those nasty comex manipulators, or central bankers, or short sellers- who are to blame- is probably in the wrong place (vbg). SOTB is a SOB. And if you come here expecting to be coddled by a soccer mom- who wants to give trophies to both the LOSERS and the winners- or, where no score is kept- so there are no LOSERS- you're in the wrong place. This is bootcamp- and it's not hard to tell who the drill sergaent is (vbg)! I think this PS from Sgt. Slider is worth another read: Ron PS: ...if it makes you feel any better, I am buying a basket of junior/explorer golds here with "house money" from my Nat Gas "insurance/hedge" short trade. Many at .25 cents on the dollar from mere months ago. That's how you buy and fund your insurance policy... upon the backs of the whipsawed, and now liquidated permabull masses. That's not vindictive, that's how you must trade to survive and prosper in volatile markets. Quit bitching about banks manipulating COMEX people! How many times have I pounded the table on studying the "scouting reports" on your competition? ...to THINK like a Central Banker - not a pom pom waving permabull cheerleader. ...to ANTICIPATE these manipulations vs.continually REACTING to them. Can you imagine Bill Billichek bitching and moaning because the opponent sent both safety's on a blitz and sacked his QB after 7 consecutive pass completions? After 7 consective pass completions (read gold rally)... YOU'D better be expecting the BLITZ!(read PPT/ESF, Central Bank, or COMEX manipulations)! WAKE UP PEOPLE -- this isn't that damn difficult. It's 90% mindset. Their are two sides to the game -- offense AND defense, and 90%+ of you ONLY play one side of the game...and wonder why you keep getting whipsawed? No high is ever high enough to sell into - because gold is either going to $2,000 or $5,000. And these $200, and 200 point corrections are to hold (fold) into, because you're holding "insurance"?!?!?!?! I've finally come to realize that DNA is DNA. Darwin rules. 10% will survive and prosper, and 90% will always continue to be what they are... food in the jungle of life.