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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (80894)	8/27/2008 8:29:42 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I've been sitting on the fence since the July low waiting for a decisive top and not seen one. The bad news keep coming, and the bounce refuses to go up to the upper trendlines around 1350. The extreme choppiness means it's been a good time to stay out. As we keep failing to revisit the 1305 top, making lower lows and lower highs, SPX is starting to form what looks like a rolling hill. A recovery from this rolling is still far from impossible, but the pattern is starting to suggest we have already peaked. Since I don't think we're going significantly higher (say, than 1350) before we're headed lower than 1200, I pulled the trigger at today's close and went short with 2/3 of what I intend to do. I'm less comfortable with this trade than I usually like to be -- the signals are still ambiguous, and it's already clear the timing is less than perfect (if we're headed down, I should have shorted at 1305). I acted only after giving up on seeing a clear signal -- all we may see is this slow and choppy drift down on a continued barrage of awful news that cannot be resisted. I'm not concerned we'll go to 1500 before we hit 1100; the crisis is too deep. I just don't know how to pick the top of the bounce. Nice piece on implicit learning at TraderFeed: traderfeed.blogspot.com K