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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (9433)	8/31/2008 12:26:31 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26002

Since the models all have landfall between Vermillion Bay and Barataria Bay, here's a quick and dirty idea of what to look for in damage reports depending on where landfall is made. From east to west: 1) Barataria Bay-expect massive flooding of the west bank of Jefferson, Orleans parishes. Probable flooding on the east bank of these parishes as well. Also the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain. This scenario would be a worst case as far as fatailities go. Also maximum damage to refineries in the New Orleans-Baton Rouge corridor (about 2 million bbl/dy of capacity). 2) Timbalier-Terrebonne Bay-Worst case scenario for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) and Port Fourchon which services it. Offloads 1.2 million Bbl/dy of crude imports). Considerable flooding to Orleans and Jefferson Parish west banks (which were relatively spared by Katrina). Much damage to Houma, LA which provides infrastructure to offshore oil facilities. Moderate damage to offshore oil platforms and rigs. 3) Atchafalaya-Vermillion Bay: Worst case scenario (of the three presented) for damage to offshore rigs and platforms. Would keep an eye on the Henry Hub at Erath, LA for damage, force Majeure for natural gas delivery has already been declared and how much damage occurs here will determine how quickly that is lifted. Look for damage to Morgan City which is a major servicing center for the oil/gas industry offshore. This is probably an easy way to get a handle on what sort/severity of economic losses we'll be looking at. Obviously the stronger the storm is when it hits, the worse these impacts will be.