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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (9478)8/31/2008 5:30:26 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 26007
 
I don't think it'll actually make it back to the Gulf....if it did it would be weakened. Really hard to project that, other than to see it's a remote possibility. Benny will disagree with me on that....I think it may landfall then stall 100-200 miles in and dump a boatload of rain on Shreveport (where a bunch of evacuees headed).....

It's a valid concern though, and even the NHS was conflicted about the post landfall action on their last discussion (at 1700):

AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.



To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (9478)8/31/2008 6:17:17 PM
From: Benny-Rubin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 26007
 
The fast forward speed really has helped keep the winds in check as the eye got punched out over Cuba. Do no let this fool you into any false sense of security as there will be a massive storm surge on the right side of the eye upon landfall.Also watch for any slight turns towards the west and slower forward speed as Gusty just might feel the pressure of the ridge to the North before landfall.