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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nspolar who wrote (9893)9/4/2008 5:23:11 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Hi TF, yes currency markets burning like Rome since mid July... just today in the past 18 hours the EUR/JPY has collapsed 4 big figures from 157.70 to 153.25...... The Euro has been so incredibly weak since the end of July and the real bombing of Dresden ie.. the EUR/USD fell off the table on August 7th-8th as Russia brought GeoPolitical risks into a market that was way too short the US. The EUD had a remarkable 90% correlation with Crude in the year ending July 8th.. which is almost perfect. No the EUD/USD and Crude have both just blow up since the July 2nd top in crude @ 147.80 or so.

It's widely apparent in the global currency markets that their is concerns of El-Erain's proverbial global economic collapse and/or more very massive blowups of major global banks and financial institutions. It's been obvious that global concerns of an unwinding of the carry trade have picked back up since the EUD/USD made it's double top near 1.60
and these concerns are growing more intense in nature.

The AUD has had the most remarkable decline that I've seen since the first year they floated it back in 1985-86.

The AUD peaked along with Gold on July 15th. The USD/AUD 98.49 high on 7/15/08 has been followed by a one way train wreck to 82.15 today. GBP/USD has really been getting destroyed as the financial engineering risk, Geopolitical risk and asset bubble risk has been exposed in the London global market place.

GBP/USD was at a corrective peak of 2.0135 again on July 15th and it has similarly imploded all the way to 1.7627 today. Truly remarkable. Remember sterling's multiyear bull market peaked back on November 9th of 2007 at 2.1162 when it became obvious that so much of Britain's growth and the currency's lure was based on the plethora of structured finance products such as SIV's .. Credit Default Swaps... CDO's multi currency variable products.

It's highly dangerous for global financial markets to be experiencing this extended period of extreme volatility and massive directional price swings. It's way too easy for banks, Investment Banks, Global Macro Asset Managers, Private Equity, Hedge Funds etc to get caught on the wrong side of several consecutive 4 to 6 standard deviation market moves and the panic and "hail mary" mentality that comes into play when trying to cut losses, make those losses back... and get the balance sheet looking better.

To answer your question, bigger trend changes in currencies do tend to take a period of many months and quite often a few years to turn... The USD made a type of S-H-S quasi triple top back during late 1999 into 2001. The EUR/JPY and the EUD/USD have been doing that for months on end as we came into this spring and summer.

I am really concerned about a few new major causalties becoming known in the very near future. The biggest risk is that we have a financial system counterparty systemic failure which can not be mediated by the existing FED, ECB, BOE, SNB, BOJ, RBA etc. And you have to wonder if Russia would like to see the West experience the type of blow up and default they experienced one decade ago. Russia will be looking for a bigger roll in a global economic rebuilding environment, as will China, Brazil and India.

these are very interesting times.

John



To: nspolar who wrote (9893)9/4/2008 11:14:40 PM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation  Respond to of 33421
 
Lehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank'

By Yalman Onaran

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may shift about $32 billion of commercial mortgages and real estate to a new company that will be spun off in a move similar to the good-bank-bad-bank model used in the 1980s banking crisis, two people briefed on the discussions said.

The bad bank, nicknamed Spinco for now, would have about $8 billion of equity coming from Lehman, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the plan is one of several under consideration. Spinco would borrow the remaining $24 billion from Lehman or outside investors. The New York-based bank would replace capital put into Spinco, whose shares would be owned by current Lehman shareholders.

Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, 62, is under pressure to strip the firm's balance sheet of hard-to-sell assets. To raise cash needed to cope with losses from a wholesale disposal, Lehman has been talking with Korea Development Bank about a capital infusion and with private equity firms interested in buying its asset-management unit.

``The model helps banks get on with their real business, focus on their strengths, after they put the bad assets aside,'' said Michael Bleier, an attorney at Reed Smith LLP who was the senior counsel to Bank Mellon during its spinoff of bad assets in 1988. ``We'll see it being used again during this crisis.''

Mark Lane, a spokesman for Lehman, declined to comment.

Korea Talks

The Spinco proposal would enable Lehman to dispose of 80 percent of its commercial mortgages, the people said. Under another plan, the firm would establish a company capitalized and managed by outside investors to buy some of its mortgage assets. The Spinco plan would enable Lehman's shareholders to benefit from a turnaround in the mortgage market.

Korea Development Bank has been in discussions to buy a 25 percent stake in Lehman for $6 billion, according to the people familiar with the talks. That would replace most of the capital Lehman would put into the bad bank.

The deal must be structured to guarantee enough cash flow from the mortgages being put into the spun-off entity to repay outside lenders, Reed Smith's Bleier said. That would force Lehman or another bank using the model to disclose much more detail about the mortgages and the securities, he said.

Balancing Act

Lehman's $65 billion mortgage-related portfolio has spooked shareholders, driving the stock price down 77 percent this year on concern that the $2.8 billion loss in the second quarter wouldn't end the bleeding. The bigger portion of the portfolio, or $40 billion, is tied to commercial real estate.

Even though defaults of commercial mortgages are still below 1 percent, speculation that delinquencies will jump in that market has pushed down the prices of the bonds backed by commercial real estate loans. By spinning off the mortgages to its own shareholders, Lehman can allow them to benefit from a possible recovery in asset prices when investors realize commercial mortgages aren't going the way of subprime.

``Management's challenge is not that of discarding a troubled portfolio,'' said David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller. ``Instead, management must find a way to relieve pressure on the stock without destroying shareholder value by succumbing to an unwarranted fire sale of commercial mortgages.''

KKR, Carlyle

Lehman, the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds last year, has been trying to reduce assets linked to that market as demand dried up and prices plummeted, generating more than $8 billion in writedowns and credit losses. BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. money manager, was considering a purchase of some of Lehman's commercial mortgages, people familiar with those discussions said last month.

If talks with the Korean bank fail, Lehman will turn to the other option for raising capital, the people familiar with the firm's plans said. Private-equity firms including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Carlyle Group have been negotiating to buy a stake in Lehman's asset-management business, which includes Neuberger Berman Inc.

Fuld removed his associate of 30 years, President Joseph Gregory, 56, in June and replaced him with Herbert ``Bart'' McDade, 49, who had run fixed income and equities. Fuld, McDade and other members of the management team are racing to conclude a deal with potential investors before the firm reports earnings this month, people familiar with the situation have said. The company typically announces earnings in mid-September, although last quarter it released preliminary figures a week before schedule.

The mortgage-bond crisis that spread to Lehman escalated in June 2007, when Bear Stearns Cos. began liquidating holdings from one of its hedge funds after losing bets on securities tied to subprime mortgages. Bear Stearns, then the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, sold itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $10 a share.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at yonaran@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 4, 2008 15:14 EDT

--------------

editorial note..... LEH is in the most bearish of possible technical positions on it's daily price chart......that of the supremely bearish descending triangle.

with a horizontal buying support area of 11.92 in mid July and then 12.50 the third week of August. This occurring while the highs descend from 24.50 to 21.87 in mid July and 3 lower highs from 21.87 down to daily highs of 17.53 earlier this week.

Unmistakable a VERY BEARISH pattern..... that of a company that is Highly Likely to be reorganized and or just disappear. How will the credit default swaps market deal with this and can the FED allow any of the KEY PLAYERS to actually blow up and necessitate a call in of the Credit Default Swaps contracts. It appears that the system can not withstand big financial firms going under and the credit default swaps ACTUALLY being paid....... it appears a type of insurance that can NOT BE PAID OFF to for those who have purchased them.... as if it's appearance would be the catalyst for a systemic credit implosion that absolutely no one on a Global Central Banking and/or Regulatory Basis seems to have any perceived and/or actual control of.

This is an out of control situation. It will necesitate the Immediate ascendancy of a New SupraGlobal Regulatory that I have mentioned here this past year... and it appears that Ben Bernake has also started to discuss this new type of 21st century Global Central Intermediary.

John